Author Archives: James Picerno

Macro Briefing | 4 June 2020

US protests continue but subdued after after new charges in Floyd case: AP
Much of US govt’s coronavirus stimulus funds have been spent or committed: WSJ
Today’s US jobless claims set for slower rise but still painfully high: Reuters
European Central Bank set to ramp up stimulus program: CNBC
Will China weaponize its $1 trillion-plus hoard of US Treasuries? MW
Hedge funds prepared for second stock-market downturn: FT
Global economic downturn eases in May after record decline: IHS Markit
US factory orders continued to plunge in April: Reuters
Speed of US downturn in US services sector eased in May: IHS Markit
US private sector lost 2.76 million jobs in May: MW

Macro Briefing | 3 June 2020

George Floyd protests continue across US with fewer clashes: CNN
Will Trump militarize response to US protests? Reuters
Dr. Fauci worries about the “durability” of a coronavirus vaccine: CNBC
US firms warily eye Hong Kong but no plays to exit yet: CNN
China Services PMI rebounded sharply in May as economy reopened: IHS Markit
Eurozone Composite PMI up slightly in May but still signals recession: IHS Markit
Does economic recovery for the US require negative interest rates? CNBC
Global mfg activity bounced in May but still deep in recession: IHS Markit

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 June 2020

The long-term forecast for the Global Market Index’s (GMI) risk premia ticked higher in May, rising for a second month after a run of declines earlier in the year. The revised annualized total return estimate for GMI is currently 4.5%, which reflects the index’s long-run projection over the “risk-free” rate, based on a risk-centered model outlined by Professor Bill Sharpe (details below).

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Macro Briefing | 2 June 2020

Trump considers using military to end protests: Bloomberg
CBO projects a slow US economic recovery after deep loss in Q2: CBO
US economic reopening plans challenged by protests in cities: NY Times
G7 members at odds over Trump’s plan to re-admit Russia: BBC
US dollar’s safe-haven status faces new challenges: Reuters
US construction spending dropped less than forecast in April: MW
A slightly softer US mfg recession in May via PMI survey data: IHS Markit
US ISM Manufacturing Index up modestly in May but still deep in recession: ISM

Macro Briefing | 1 June 2020

George Floyd protests continue across US: Reuters
Will protests trigger second wave of Covid-19 infections? NY Times
Does Russia have an effective treatment for Covid-19? CNBC
Trump postpones G7 summit: CNBC
Eurozone mfg sector continued to contract sharply in May: IHS Markit
UK mfg sector fell sharply in May but not as deep vs. Apr: IHS Markit
Consumer sentiment in US edged up in May after sharp decline in April: CNBC
Chicago-region business activity fell in May–lowest level since 1982: Chicago PMI
US trade deficit widened more than expected in April: MW
US consumer spending collapsed in April, falling nearly 14%: Reuters

Book Bits | 30 May 2020

The Next Fifty Things That Made The Modern Economy
Tim Harford
Summary via publisher (Little, Brown)
In Fifty Things that Made the Modern Economy, the revolutionary, acclaimed book, radio series and podcast, bestselling economist Tim Harford introduced us to a selection of fifty radical inventions that changed the world. Now, in this new book, Tim Harford once again brings us an array of remarkable, memorable, curious and often unexpected ‘things’ – inventions that teach us lessons by turns intimate and sweeping about the complex world economy we live in today.
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Macro Briefing | 29 May 2020

House sends China sanctions bill to Trump: CNBC
Civil unrest roils Minneapolis: Reuters
What will Trump announce in today’s press conference today on China? CNBC
US charges two-dozen-plus N. Korean bankers with money laundering: CNN
What happens when the unemployment checks run out? NY Times
US Q1 GDP loss revised down to -5%: CNN
Durable goods orders in US fell sharply for a second month in April: BBG
Pending home sales fell to the lowest level on record in April: BBG
KC Fed Mfg Index continued to decline in May but at slower rate: KCF
US jobless claims continue to surge–up 2.1 million last week: CNBC