Coronavirus Bites Back… Again: It’s been tempting to think that the worst had passed. But health experts (at least the respectable ones) have been warning otherwise. Markets are deciding to take another look at the risks and reprice assets accordingly.
Author Archives: James Picerno
Africa, China Stocks Lead Global Equity Markets Bounce
Since global markets plunged during the coronavirus crash in March, all the world’s major equity regions have posted sharp rebounds. Leading the way: shares in Africa, followed by China and US stocks, based on a set of publicly traded funds through Oct. 27.
Macro Briefing: 28 Oct 2020
US coronavirus hospitalizations surge: Reuters
Covid-19 cases spike in swing states that will likely decide election: CNBC
Unrest in Philadelphia continues after police fatally shot a black man: BBC
Pre-election voting at 50%-plus of ballots cast in 2016 election: CNN
Germany considers shutting bars and restaurants for one month: BBG
Is the struggling rental market creating the next housing crisis? WSJ
Consumer Confidence Index for US ticks down in October: MW
US consumer confidence falls sharply in swing states in October: Reuters
Annual rise in US home prices in Aug accelerated to 5.7% annual gain: S&P
Mid-Altantic manufacturing activity strengthened in October: MSTAR
US durable goods orders rose 1.9% in Sep–fifth straight monthly gain: MW
Strong Rebound Expected For This Week’s US Q3 GDP Report
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis is on track to report that the economy posted a strong rebound in the third quarter in Thursday’s initial GDP estimate (Oct. 29). Most economists and nowcasting models are estimating a dramatic, perhaps record-setting increase in gross domestic product (GDP). There’s still uncertainty about Q4’s outlook, but confidence is high that this week’s GDP data will confirm that the economy mounted a dramatic rebound after Q2’s record loss.
Macro Briefing: 27 Oct 2020
Senate confirms Amy Coney Barrett to Supreme Court: CNBC
Supreme Court: Wisconsin mail-in ballots valid only if received by Nov 3: CNN
Russian air strikes in Syria kill 50-plus Turkish-backed fighters: BBC
China’s Ant Group expected to raise $34 billion in record IPO: WSJ
Pandemic moves Eurozone banks to tighten access to credit: Reuters
US new home sales slipped in Sep but remain strong: MW
Dallas Fed Mfg Index: Manufacturing Expands for fifth month in Oct: DF
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: US growth continued to slow in Sep: AP
Emerging Markets And Junk Bonds ex-US Led Gains Last Week
Shares and bonds in emerging markets, along with high-yield bonds ex-US, led returns for the major asset classes last week, based on a set of ETFs. Buoyed by a weak US Dollar Index, which is close to a 2-1/2 low, foreign markets generally led trading action for the week through Friday, Oct. 23.
Macro Briefing: 26 Oct 2020
Europe imposes new Covid-19 restrictions as infections rise: WSJ
Five aides to VP Pence test positive for coronavirus: CNN
Investors consider last week’s rise in bond yields to 4-month high: CNBC
China to impose sanctions on several US firms over arms sales to Taiwan: BBG
House Speaker Pelosi waiting for new stimulus counteroffer from WH: BBG
Momentum factor weaker than it appears, say academics: II
200,000-plus lose power in Northern Calif ahead of raging wildfires: NBC
German business sentiment fell in Sep–first drop in 5 months: Reuters
US economic recovery gained momentum in September via PMI data: IHSM
Book Bits: 24 October 2020
Christopher Manske
Press release for book’s publication
“Why do some crises affect the stock market more than others? Wall Street typically suggests that, when crisis hits, investors bide their time because someday, perhaps years later, the markets will come back. This standard approach means waiting through chaos, confusion, and even long-term loss,” said Chris Manske author of The Prepared Investor. “I was compelled to write this book to tell the true story of crisis investing which is generally more proactive – and a lot more optimistic – than it seems on the surface.”
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 23 Oct 2020
Rally In Risk Assets Ex-US: US stocks and bonds took a back seat to offshore rallies this week, providing some much-needed lift to the idea that holding a globally diversified portfolio is more than an outdated academic concept. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. It’s too soon to declare the end has arrived for the long running dominance of American risk assets on the global stage, but suddenly it’s easier to wonder if this week’s results are a preview of things to come.
Will The US Avoid Eurozone’s Rising Double-Dip Recession Risk?
PMI survey data for October indicate that the Eurozone economy’s recovery is slipping into a new phase of contraction, due to a rebound in coronavirus infections and related blowback on business and consumer activity. The US economy appears more durable so far, although America is reporting a new rise in Covid-19 infections, which suggests that economic headwinds may rise in the third quarter. (Please see the update at the end of this post with encouraging data for October that was published after this article was written.)