Trump ends stimulus talks between GOP and Dems until after election: WSJ
After rejecting stimulus talks, Trump appears to reverse course: CNBC
End of pre-election stimulus talks threatens more economic pain for US: BBG
Fed’s Powell recommends more stimulus to aid economic recovery: CNBC
Covid-19 continues to spread among Trump’s inner circle: BBC
US lawmakers focus on reforms for Big Tech: Reuters
Iran warns that fighting in Caucus could trigger regional war: Reuters
Another former Soviet republic (Kyrgyzstan) succumbs to political chaos: BBC
German industrial output slipped in Aug after 3 monthly gains: MW
Venezuela, once a major oil producer, grinds to a halt for crude output: NYT
US traded deficit at 14-year high in August: AP
US job openings retreat for the first time in four months in Aug: BBG

It doesn’t take much to set reflation expectations on fire these days. With US interest rates near zero (or negative in some parts of the world), a mild uptick in yields inspires a new round of forecasts that a sustained run of higher inflation has finally started.

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Trump returns to White House with cautious prognosis: WSJ
CDC’s new coronavirus guidance: it can spread on airborne particles: CNBC
US Sec. of State, meeting with Asian allies, criticizes China’s ‘malign activity’: IBT
Two-track recovery unfolding as US economy struggles with coronavirus: WSJ
House antitrust report suggests breaking up Big Tech: Reuters
Global economic recovery slowed in Sep but remains “solid”: IHSM
German factory orders continued to recover in August: MW
PMI survey: US economy continued to rebound in September: IHSM
US services sector expands for fourth month in a row in Sep: MW

Global markets recovered lost ground last week, although a measure of broadly defined commodities continued to fall, based on a set of exchange traded funds through Oct. 2.

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Trump may leave hospital today: WSJ
Trump still in ‘dangerous position’ even though he looks well, says doctor: CNBC
Nine US states report record increases in coronavirus infections: Reuters
Considering the line of presidential succession: Politico
Risk of permanent job losses is rising for US economy: NYT
Invesco: China’s economic recovery from coronavirus will support region: CNBC
Eurozone growth slowed in Sep, edging closer to stagnation: IHSM
UK growth eased in Sep but remained ‘strong’: IHSM
US payrolls growth rose by lower than expected 661,000 in Sep: CNBC

● When More Is Not Better: Overcoming America’s Obsession with Economic Efficiency
Roger L. Martin
Summary via publisher (Harvard U. Press)
Growth in the economic prosperity of the average American family has slowed to a crawl, while the wealth of the richest Americans has skyrocketed. This imbalance threatens the American democratic capitalist system and our way of life. In this bracing yet constructive book, world-renowned business thinker Roger Martin starkly outlines the fundamental problem: We have treated the economy as a machine, pursuing ever-greater efficiency as an inherent good. But efficiency has become too much of a good thing.

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Pricing In Election Risk: A contentious debate between President Donald Trump and his opponent, Joe Biden, on Tuesday night unleashed a sea of commentary and concern that an already unusual election year was running off the rails. Just to keep things interesting, late on Thursday news broke that President Trump had tested positive for coronavirus, followed by this afternoon’s announcement from the White House that the commander in chief was being moved to Walter Reed Military Medical Center as a ‘precautionary measure.’

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The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked down to an annualized 4.9% in September, slightly below the previous month’s estimate. This estimate is a long-run forecast for performance over the “risk-free” rate, according to a risk-based model (details below).

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President Trump tests positive for coronavirus: Reuters
Trump’s Covid-19 diagnosis resets US presidential campaign: BBG
EU may impose sanctions on Turkey over “provocations” with Greece: BBC
Amazon: nearly 20,000 of its workers infected with coronavirus: CNN
US job growth expected to slow in today’s employment report for Sep: WSJ
US consumer spending rose in Aug; income fell sharply: CNBC
Eurozone unemployment rate up for fifth straight month in Aug: MW
Global manufacturing recovery continued in September: IHSM
US manufacturing activity eased in Sep but continues to post solid rise: ISM
US construction spending rose more than expected in Aug: Reuters
US jobless claims drop to pandemic low but remain unusually high: CNBC

September was a rough month for the major asset classes: Every slice of global markets fell. The only exception: cash. Otherwise, the primary market betas lost ground across the board, marking the first full sweep of declines since March.

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