Using the US stock market as a guide suggests that business-cycle conditions remain strong in terms of the recovery since the current economic expansion began in May 2020. The rebound in equities is still one of the sharpest since 1970. But the stock market is not the economy, as the saying goes, and that’s where the analysis turns complicated, as suggested by a review of key economic indicators.
Author Archives: James Picerno
Macro Briefing: 12 August 2025
Trump extends trade truce with China for 90 days. The new deadline allows negotiations to continue ahead of a massive tariff hikes now set for Nov. 10. China also announced it is extending its pause on tariffs on the US.
Early Q3 US GDP Nowcasts Point To Economic Slowdown
Initial estimates of third-quarter economic activity indicate a downshift in output, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Although the current numbers don’t anticipate recession conditions, the median estimate highlights a significant slowdown vs. Q2’s increase.
Macro Briefing: 11 August 2025
Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% of China chip sales to the US government. “The two chipmakers agreed to the financial arrangement as a condition for obtaining export licences for the Chinese market that were granted last week, according to people familiar with the situation, including a US official,” the FT reports.
Book Bits: 9 August 2025
● The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump: What the Trade War Means for the World
Philip Coggan
Q&A with author via MoneyWeek
Q: In your new book, The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump: What the Trade War Means for the World, you posit that president Donald Trump’s threats over tariffs are real, rather than a bluff, and represent a major threat to both the US and world economies.
A: Yes. Many investors seem to be assuming that Trump will ultimately back down from his threats of swingeing tariffs; markets have recovered from the collapse that took place in April when they were first announced. However, while there is still a chance that this could be correct, this attitude seems complacent.
Utilities Take Lead As Top US Equity Sector Performer This Year
In a year of uncertainty about how tariff blowback will affect the economy, investors are favoring the relative safety of utilities in 2025. Using a set of ETFs as proxies shows that shares of utilities have taken the lead for US sectors this year, as of Thursday’s close (Aug. 7).
Macro Briefing: 8 August 2025
US jobless claims rose last week, but remain in a middling range vs recent history. “The sideways drift in initial and continuing claims in recent months suggests that layoff activity is muted,” Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies, wrote in a note. “The ‘no hire/no fire’ theme in the labor market remains firmly intact.”
Will Next Week’s Consumer Inflation Report Highlight Tariff Risk?
President Trump’s new round of “reciprocal” tariffs kicks in today, a shift that focus attention anew on forecasts by many economists that the levies on imports will raise inflation, if only temporarily. The outlook will be stress-tested with next week’s July data for the consumer price index (CPI), set for release on Tues., Aug. 12.
Macro Briefing: 7 August 2025
Trump’s new tariffs take effect today, affecting imports from dozens of countries. Most imports into the are now subject to a baseline 10% duty, with the overall average effective tariff rate rising to more than 17% — the highest since 1935.
Will Incoming Inflation Data Derail Outlook For Interest Rate Cut?
Markets are all in on predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the next policy meeting on Sep. 17. But there could be a wild card in the deck. A key macro question between now and then: Will the next two updates on consumer inflation persuade the Fed to leave rates unchanged – or perhaps raise rates?