With the exception of broadly defined commodities, all the major asset classes lost ground in the first week of October, based on a set of exchange-traded products. Stocks in emerging markets suffered the biggest setback among widespread losses in global markets.
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Did GOP trade majorities in Congress for a conservative Supreme Court? CNN
Senate Majority Leader: opposition to Kavanaugh is ‘gift’ for GOP: WaPo
US Sec of State cited “fundamental disagreement” with China: BBG
N. Korea ready to allow inspections of its missile, nuclear sites: Reuters
Khashoggi case is a crisis for US-Saudi ties: WaPo
UN climate report: high risk of crisis from climate change by 2040: NY Times
Tropical Storm Michael may hit Florida’s Gulf Coast as hurricane: CBS
China’s central bank rolls out stimulus to shore up economy: SCMP
Far-right candidate wins first round of Brazil’s presidential election: BBC
US job growth cooled in Sep as unemployment rate fell to 3.7%: Reuters
10yr Treasury yield spiked to 3.23% last week, highest since 2011:

● Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side
By Howard Marks
Adapted excerpt via Bloomberg
Every once in a while, when the economy and the markets are humming, there arises another belief that things are now different: that cycles have been put to an end, such that we no longer have to worry about the upswing turning into a downswing. For example, in pre-Depression 1929, an auto company president declared, “There will be no interruption of our present prosperity.” In 1996, while the tech bubble was building, the Wall Street Journal reported, “The big, bad business cycle has been tamed.” And former Treasury Secretary and New York Federal Reserve President Tim Geithner wrote in his autobiography, “Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises,” that in 2003, on the way to the global financial crisis, “There was growing confidence that [financial innovations and better monetary policy] had made devastating crises a thing of the past.”
In other words, the assumption was that good times in the economy can roll on forever; assets can appreciate without end; and investors needn’t worry about a correction, bear market or crash. Such “different-this-time” thinking is sorely wrong and potentially dangerous.
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Private payrolls in the US increased 121,000 in September, well below Econoday.com’s consensus forecast for a 175,000 gain. Last month’s advance was also dramatically weaker than August’s revised surge of 254,000, according to this morning’s release from the Labor Dept. Despite the surprisingly softer report, the year-over-year trend ticked up to 2.0%, a two-year high.
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Yesterday’s sharp selloff in US stocks delivered haircuts far and wide, but the setback left growth and momentum factors in the lead for year-to-date equity performance, based on a set of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). While large-cap value suffered the smallest loss in yesterday’s rout among the major equity factor buckets, this slice of US equities remains in last place in 2018 through yesterday’s close (Oct. 4).
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Republicans say FBI report exonerates Kavanaugh, paves way for vote: WaPo
Rising bond yields in US are weighing on markets around the world: Reuters
Tech stocks in US slump to 15-month low: Bloomberg
Emerging-market stocks headed for worst weekly loss since Feb: Reuters
Economists expect a solid gain in today’s US jobs report for September: Reuters
US job cuts up sharply in Sep to second-highest monthly print this year: CG&C
August factory orders in US post biggest gain in 11 months: Reuters
10yr Treasury yield continued rising on Thurs, reaching 3.19%–highest since 2011:

If there was any doubt that a regime of rising interest rates has arrived, the Treasury market on Wednesday dispatched a wake-up call.
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Federal judge blocks deportations planned by Trump adminstration: USA Today
Vice President Pence set to give provocative speech on China: CNN
FBI delivered Kavanaugh report to White House: Reuters
Key Kavanaugh vote in Senate set for Friday: The Hill
Fed chief: US expansion can continue ‘for quite some time’: Bloomberg
Global growth slowed to 2-year low in Sep, according to PMI data: IHS Markit
ADP: US companies added 230,000 jobs in Sep, most since Feb: MW
ISM Non-Mfg Index jumped to 21-year high in September: Reuters
Services PMI slipped to 8-month low in Sep: IHS Markit
10-year Treasury yield spiked to seven-year high: 3.15%: CNBC

Economic output for the US is on track to post a slower-but-still-healthy gain in the preliminary GDP report for the third quarter that’s scheduled for publication later this month. The outlook is based on a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. The median Q3 estimate: a 3.2% increase, unchanged from the analysis in mid-September.
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FBI’s investigation of Kavanaugh may end today: Fox
Senate GOP looking to schedule Kavanaugh vote this week: The Hill
Investigation reveals tax-dodging schemes enriched Trump: NY Times
NY launches investigation into Trump’s taxes after NY Times story: MW
US NATO rep: US may ‘take out” Russian missiles if Moscow violates treaty: CNN
Fed Chair Powell: US economy in “remarkably positive” period: WaPo
India’s currency falls to record low: CNBC
RBC survey: 90% of investors say ESG portfolios match/beat non-ESG: P&I
Small-cap stocks (Russell 2000 Index) fell to 2-month low on Tuesday: