US nonfarm payrolls picked up in February, rising moderately vs. the number of hirings in January. The economy added 151,000 jobs last month, up from 125,000 in the previous month. “Job growth is holding steady, but headwinds are building,” says Morningstar senior US economist Preston Caldwell. The government’s surveys have “likely yet to register more than a sliver of the full impact from federal government layoff. That should change in next month’s job report.”
● The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West
Alexander C. Karp and Nicholas W. Zamiska
Review via The New Republic
Karp… with his head of corporate affairs, Nicholas W. Zamiska. The Technological Republic attempts to distill the argument Karp has been making for years: that, since the country’s tech scene is historically a product of the national security state, Silicon Valley executives and engineers should shed their compunctions about working with the military and dedicate themselves to ensuring another century of American hard-power supremacy. It’s an argument with a growing audience. Thanks to a mix of factors—a massive increase in venture capital investment in defense and a slowdown in broader venture activity; new Pentagon initiatives designed to bridge the fabled “Valley of Death” between tech companies and the Pentagon; a tech workforce cowed by layoffs and firings—the era of Silicon Valley walkouts, open letters, public employee protests, and genuflecting CEOs is, for now at least, mostly over.
The US stock market has turned negative on the year, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at results for the low-volatility equity risk factor. Using a set of ETFs to track this space shows that the low-vol risk premium is outperforming the rest of the field by a wide margin in 2025 through Thursday’s close (Mar. 6).
US jobless claims fell last week, returning to a level that suggests an upbeat outlook for the labor market. New filings for unemployment benefits fell to 221,000, holding into the 200,000-250,000 range that’s prevailed in recent history.
In a striking reversal of fortunes, equities in developed markets ex-US are now leading the major asset classes in 2025 while US shares are posting a modest loss year to date, based on a set of ETFs through Wednesday’s close (Mar. 5).
Hiring by US companies slowed sharply in February, according to the ADP Employment Report. Employers added 77,000 workers last month, well below expectations and January’s 186,000 increase. “Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,” said ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson. “Our data, combined with other recent indicators, suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers as they assess the economic climate ahead.”
The rollout of President Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China has roiled expectations for US economic activity in the first quarter.
US stock market post-election gain evaporates amid concerns about negative economic effects from President Trump’s trade war. After yesterday’s drop in the S&P 500, equities are 2.5% below the Nov. 6, 2024 close, the first trading day following the election. Addressing Congress Tuesday night, Trump reaffirmed his committment to tariffs, admitting there will be “a little disturbance” and that there “may be a little bit of an adjustment period. You have to bear with me again and this will be even better,” he claimed.
The long-run expected total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) fell in February, sliding to an annualized 7.1% vs. the previous month’s 7.4%. The downward revised forecast follows several months of higher estimates. The analysis is based on three models (defined below) for GMI, a global benchmark built with the major asset classes (excluding cash).
