US economic activity slowed in January, according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Two of the index’s four broad categories decreased from December, and one category made a negative contribution in January.
Author Archives: James Picerno
Foreign Stocks, Commodities Lead Major Asset Classes This Year
The year so far is shaping up to be quite different from 2024 in terms of leaders and laggards for the major asset classes. Global equities ex-US are the leaders, along with a broad measure of commodities, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close. The formerly high-flying US equities market, by comparison, is posting relatively modest results year to date.
Macro Briefing: 24 February 2025
US economic activity “falters and payrolls decline in February, as optimism slumps and costs rise,” according to the latest update of the US PMI Composite Output Index, a survey-based GDP proxy. This month’s initial estimate for the index is 50.4, a 17-month low that’s just slightly above the neutral 50 mark that separates growth from contraction.
Book Bits: 22 February 2025
● Why Nothing Works: Who Killed Progress―and How to Bring It Back
Marc J. Dunkelman
Interview with author via NPR
Q: When New York City built its subway system in the first part of the 1900s, it took about three years to build the first subway line through Manhattan. It’s impossible to do anything in three years in the United States today, certainly anything of that scale. What do you make of that comparison?
A: I think that’s exactly right. We had a long period in our history where we gave centralized power to certain authority figures to make big decisions that were designed to help everybody. And often they weren’t beneficial. Sometimes they were abusive. There are lots of stories where we awoke to that in the 1960s and seventies.
Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Treasury Yields Remain Elevated
At a time of increased uncertainty about inflation, the relatively elevated real yields available in inflation-indexed Treasuries offer a partial antidote of certainty for anxious investors.
Macro Briefing: 21 February 2025
US jobless claims edged higher last week, but remain at a level that prevailed prior to the pandemic. “New claims have trended lower since last August as the 13-week moving average touched 218,000 after peaking at 235,000, a sign that the labor market remains strong,” writes an analyst at RSM.
Despite Inflation Risk, Bond Market Holds On To Gains In 2025
Inflation concerns continue to lurk, but the US bond market is holding on to its rally so far this year, based on a set of ETFs through Wednesday’s close (Feb. 19).
Macro Briefing: 20 February 2025
US housing starts fell more than expected in January, in part due to disruptions from snowstorms and freezing temperatures. “The outlook for more homebuilding is cloudy and gray as import tariffs are likely to push up building costs in the months to come, and homebuyers report the higher cost of borrowing is holding them back from being able to afford and purchase a new home,” says Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.
Foreign Stocks Lead Major Asset Classes In 2025
After two straight years of performance dominance by US equities, foreign stocks in developed markets are leading the major asset classes by a wide margin so far in 2025, based on a set of ETFs through Tuesday’s close (Feb. 18). It’s anyone’s guess if the leadership for equities ex-US continues, but at the moment the change in fortunes is a striking reshuffling of recent history.
Macro Briefing: 19 February 2025
The US Housing Market Index, a survey-based measure of home builder sentiment, fell further below the neutral 50 mark in February. The index has been been below 50 since May and reflects a cautious outlook among US home builders for the near-term outlook.
