Judging by the headlines, it’s tempting to conclude that a US recession is imminent. Looking at a broad array of macro indicators, by contrast, still leaves room for debate.
Author Archives: James Picerno
Macro Briefing: 5 August 2025
US factory orders fell sharply in June. Orders have now fallen in two of the past three months. New orders contracted 4.8% from May. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders rose 0.4%.
Bonds Rally On Weak Payrolls Data
The bond market looks increasingly focused on slowing economic growth vs. tariff inflation. The two risk factors have kept the US 10-year yield trading in a range in recent weeks as investors weighed which threat was more pressing. Following Friday’s weaker-than-expected payrolls data for July, along with sharp downward revisions for hiring in the previous two months, Treasuries rallied, pushing yields abruptly down — a shift that suggests market sentiment is now prioritizing a softer economy as the leading driver for bonds.
Macro Briefing: 4 August 2025
US hiring rebounded in July, but only modestly, following two months of near-stagnant increases. The 73,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls last month was well below expectations, and raises concern that the labor market will continue to slow. “There’s no way to pretty-up this report. Previous months were revised significantly lower where the labor market has been on stall-speed,” said Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management. “Last year the Fed messed up by not cutting in July so they did a catch-up cut at their next meeting. They’ll likely have to do the same thing this year.”
Book Bits: 2 August 2025
● The Progress Trap: The Modern Left and the False Authority of History
Ben Cobley
Summary via publisher (Polity)
The idea of progress, one of the animating ideas of Western civilization, has now gone global. From Marxism and neoliberalism to today’s mutant identity politics, it offers a framework of knowledge and confidence: an assurance that things will get better and that history is on our side. However, in doing this it creates a form of authority that is simultaneously imaginary and dishonest, resting on confidence in a future that is really contingent and unknowable.In The Progress Trap, Ben Cobley looks at this progressive mindset as a form of power, conferring a right to act and control others. ‘Change’, ‘transformation’ and the ‘new’ are the superior values, meaning destruction of the old: people, cultures and nature. It is a trap into which nearly all of us fall at times, so attractive are its stories and familiar its techniques.
Is The Everything Rally Vulnerable To Trump’s New Tariffs?
President Trump on Thursday announced new tariffs on dozens of countries, marking a resumption of the trade-war policies that he originally outlined in April. Stocks fell around the world in reaction to the news, although all the major asset classes are still posting gains year to date, based on a set of ETFs through Thursday’s close (July 31). But with the return of an aggressive stance on trade from the White House, the near-term outlook for risk assets is again forced to price in the effects from erratic policy shifts.
Macro Briefing: 1 August 2025
President Trump signed an executive order Thursday that revised “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries, with updated import fees ranging from 10% to 41%. “It doesn’t mean that somebody doesn’t come along in four weeks and say we can make some kind of a deal,” he said in an interview yesterday. The latest tariff rates will start from Aug. 7, a White House official advised in an emailed statement.
The July Recess Is Now In Progress
This is the view from my “office” for the next several days, which is to say that the usual routine will be on hiatus until your editor returns to the world headquarters of The Capital Spectator on Friday, Aug. 1. Have a great week. I certainly will. Cheers!
Book Bits: 26 July 2025
● The Evidence-Based Investor: Overcoming Investment Myths for Better Performance
Summary via publisher (Palgrave Macmillan/Springer)
Investing is simple in theory, yet difficult in practice. Investors give up returns and often unknowingly increase risk by falling for one or more of the investment myths. This open access book explores why countless investors keep falling into the same traps, warns against the alluring though deceptive voices of the investment world, and unravels ten specific myths that often lead investors astray. To avoid these pitfalls, a scientifically-based and disciplined approach to investing is presented, one which is centered around only three sub-portfolios. Based on empirical and theoretical insights, this book empowers readers to make smarter, better-informed investment decisions. If you want to master the art of investing and build a prosperous financial future, this book will serve as your essential guide. Note: a free, digital “open access” copy of the book is available at the publisher’s site via the “Summary” link above.
Next Week’s Q2 GDP Data Expected To Report Moderate Growth
The US economy remains on track to post a moderate recovery in next week’s second-quarter GDP report, according to nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Meanwhile, new PMI survey data for July suggests growth will strengthen further in the first month of Q3.