The Iran war is roiling financial markets, but the impact on long‑term expected returns will likely be limited. Even in the worst‑case scenario, the methodology outlined below for developing performance estimates is relatively immune to short‑term events.
Author Archives: James Picerno
Major Asset Classes | February 2026 | Performance Review
Foreign securities and US real estate investment trusts led a broad-based rally for the major asset classes in February, based on a set of ETF proxies. US stocks, however, didn’t participate in last month’s gains.
Iran Risk Threatens The Everything Rally
All the major asset classes are posting year-to-date gains, as of Friday’s close. But a lot can happen over one weekend.
Book Bits: 28 February 2026
● Plastic Inc.: The Secret History and Shocking Future of Big Oil’s Biggest Bet
Beth Gardiner
Summary via publisher (Avery/Penguin Random House)
Plastic, the foundational material of modern consumerism, is everywhere in our daily lives. But the oil and petrochemical companies making it are hiding in plain sight. Because for all the vivid coverage of where plastic ends up, there is remarkably little discussion of where it comes from. Today, industry is pouring billions of dollars into plans to double, or even triple, the amount it churns out, even as individuals concerned about plastic’s out-of-control proliferation try to use less. As Big Oil stares down a future of diminishing demand for fossil fuels, plastic has become its financial lifeline.
CEOs vs. the Treasury Market
CEO confidence for the economic outlook has improved, but the Treasury market is still pricing in rate cuts.
Bullish Momentum Holds Firm in Global Asset Allocation
Optimism may seem scarce in the headlines, but a bullish trend still powers global asset‑allocation strategies, based on a set of ETFs through yesterday’s close (Feb. 25).
Bond Investors Embrace Maturity Risk In 2026
The risk appetite in the bond market has picked up this year as investors grow more comfortable with the economic outlook and the path of interest rates. A set of bond ETFs through yesterday’s close (Feb. 24) highlights a clear trend so far in 2026: favoring government securities with longer maturities has been a winning strategy.
US Growth Slows in Q4, but Early Q1 Data Signals a Rebound
US economic growth posted a sizable downside miss in Friday’s fourth-quarter GDP report, but early Q1 nowcasts point to a rebound.
A Triad of Risk Factors Stalks Markets This Week
The resilience of global markets will be tested anew this week as investors grapple with the implications of three risks that could roil sentiment: slower economic growth, the Supreme Court’s ruling that President Trump’s tariffs are illegal, and the threat of a US strike on Iran.
Book Bits: 21 February 2026
● Mastering Gold and Silver Markets: Insights from a Legendary Bullion Bank Trader
Robert Gottlieb
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
In Mastering Gold and Silver Markets: Insights from a Legendary Bullion Bank Trader, veteran precious metals trader, Robert Gottlieb, delivers an insightful blend of memoir and education that covers the world of bullion trading from a banker’s perspective. The book covers his journey from working at a certified public accounting firm to his position as the Global Head of Precious Metals Trading and Sales at many of the largest bullion banks in the world. Gottlieb dives deep into the critical role played by bullion banks in the global precious metals ecosystem. He provides a detailed explanation of financial and futures markets and how they facilitate liquidity and hedging strategies for their clients.