The stock market is soaring and the rising tide has lifted small-cap shares, but if you’ve been expecting a hefty premium (or any premium) in smaller firms, well, there’s still plenty of disappointment to process.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Macro Briefing: 25 March 2024
* Can the Fed cut interest rates if the stock market is soaring?
* Resilient economy persuades Fed that US recession risk remains low
* EU launches probe into Meta, Apple and Alphabet with new tech law
* China at ‘fork in the road’ with reforms to boost demand, says IMF chief
* China introduces new ban on US chips in government computers
* Infrastructure’s rise has turned it into a $1 trillion asset class
* US yield curve is inverted for nearly 1-1/2 years, but still no sign of recession:
Book Bits: 23 March 2024
● The Rise of the Algorithms: How YouTube and TikTok Conquered the World
John M. Jordan
Summary via publisher (Penn State U. Press)
The meteoric rise of online video is reshaping the competition for human attention. The Rise of the Algorithms argues that this new technology has changed the way we interact with others, our relationships with public institutions, and our very own behaviors and psyches. In tracing the origins and evolution of online video, John M. Jordan examines the mechanics—and the ethical stakes—of online video platforms, especially YouTube and TikTok but also others, such as Twitch. Tracing the use of algorithms pioneered by Facebook and Google and so successfully exploited by TikTok’s corporate parent, ByteDance, Jordan shows how these platforms now engineer human behavior—with consequences for culture, politics, and identity. Jordan argues that we are at an inflection point. Until now we have proved, as a society, ill-prepared or unwilling to address such problems as the power of digital platforms, the personal cost of viral celebrity, the invasion of privacy, and the proliferation of disinformation.
US Q1 Growth Nowcast Ticks Down, Suggests Expansion Is Slowing
The US economy remains on track to post a moderate growth rate in the upcoming first-quarter GDP report, but the expansion continues to show signs of slowing.
Macro Briefing: 22 March 2024
* US govt sues Apple, charging that its iPhone ecosystem is a monopoly
* US Leading Economic Index unexpectedly rises in February
* Jobless claims eased last week, reaffirming strong US labor market
* Philly Fed Index indicates continued expansion in business activity
* PMI Composite Index continues to indicate modest US expansion:
* US existing home sales rise in February to highest level in a year:
Fed Still Expects To Cut Rates Despite Sticky Inflation
The Federal Reserve lifted its outlook for core PCE inflation in 2024 but reaffirmed expectations that interest rates will probably fall by the end of the year. Despite the apparent conflict, the market quickly jumped on the bandwagon by bidding up bond prices (and lowering yields) and firming up expectations for rate cuts via the implied forecast in Fed funds futures.
Macro Briefing: 21 March 2024
* Fed leaves rates unchanged but expects cuts later this year
* Fed Chairman Powell doesn’t appear worried about recent sticky inflation data
* New CBO estimates still project hefty runup in US debt in years ahead
* Eurozone economy close to stabilizing in March via PMI survey data
* As mortgage rates decline, US housing supply is starting to rebound
* Private equity firm Apollo offers to buy Paramount film and TV studios
* Micron shares soar as AI-driven earnings report impresses investors
* US 10-year Treasury yield continues to ease after Fed leaves rates unchanged:
Profiling A ‘Real Assets’ Portfolio During The Recent Inflation Surge
The sharp runup in US inflation in 2021-2022 revived the idea that a so-called real assets portfolio is crucial for asset allocation strategies. But with the peaking of inflation in mid-2022, the outlook has turned murky for a dedicated focus on assets that are expected to benefit from higher pricing pressure.
Macro Briefing: 20 March 2024
* Federal Reserve expected to leave rates unchanged at today’s policy meeting
* Economists continue ponder why high rates haven’ caused US recession
* US dollar strengthens after Bank of Japan ends policy of negative rates
* Rate cut for Europe on the table for June, says ECB President Lagarde
* UK inflation in February eases to slowest pace in nearly 2-1/2 years
* US housing starts rebounded in February–biggest rise since May:
Expectations For June Rate Cut Continue To Fade
Analysts are debating if last week’s sticky inflation news is the death knell for a June cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. This much is clear: the recent run of news isn’t encouraging for anticipating that a dovish turn for monetary policy is imminent.