Another year (nearly) over and so it’s time again to look back on the Book Bits columns of 2025 and highlight the volumes that caught your editor’s eye for one reason or another. As usual in this year-end review, we’ll feature ten books that appeared on these pages during the course of the year. We’ll start with five today, followed by the balance in a week. Happy reading!

● How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle
Ray Dalio
Review via Inc.
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio, who founded Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world, is warning that the debt situation in the United States is approaching a “death spiral” that could eventually threaten the entire U.S. economy.
In his new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, Dalio joins a growing chorus of financial experts and billionaires who have been sounding the alarm about government debt levels. The book comes as a report from the Congressional Budget Office released Wednesday found that Donald Trump’s budget bill would add $2.4 trillion to national debt, which currently stands at $36.9 trillion. The problem, Dalio said, is “urgent.”

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The casual reader of financial news is probably aware that gold’s glitter is shining brightly this year on the heels of a 60%-plus year-to-date rally. But the sparkle looks dull next to silver’s rise.

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The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a ¼-point yesterday, as expected. The stock market rallied and Treasury yields fell. But the cut is considered “hawkish” because the central bank remained vague about the prospects for more policy easing in the near term.

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The Federal Reserve cut its target rate by 1/4 point to a 3.50%-to-3.75% range, marking the third reduction this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested the central bank would remain cautious on whether to cut further. “We’re well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves,” he said.

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The official government third-quarter GDP report remains a mystery as the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) struggles to recover its data collection and analysis efforts following the government shutdown. The best guess at this point is that output rose at a solid pace in Q3, based on several sources. Q4, by contrast, looks set for a substantially softer increase, according to various private estimates.

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US job openings rose slightly in October, enough to to mark a 5-month high, the Labor Dept. reports. “The job market isn’t collapsing but it is certainly losing steam,” said Oren Klachkin, financial markets economist at Nationwide. “We anticipate Fed officials will try to get ahead of labor market weakness with another 25 basis points rate cut tomorrow even as inflation remains above the 2% goal.”

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The rear-view mirror paints a rosy picture. All the primary sectors of the US bond market are posting solid year-to-date gains, based on a set of ETFs through Monday’s close (Dec. 8). Expectations for another rate cut at tomorrow’s policy meeting could extend the rally. But beneath the surface are hints that 2026 could be a more challenging environment for fixed income amid swirling cross currents for policy and macro factors.

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.8 points in November to 99.0 and remained above its 52-year average of 98. “Although optimism increased, small business owners are still frustrated by the lack of qualified workers,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Despite this, more firms still plan to create new jobs in the near future.”

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With three-and-a-half weeks of trading left for 2025, all the major asset classes are holding on to gains, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Dec. 5). The top-down view of the bullish trend, however, masks weakness in some corners that could accelerate in 2026.

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US consumer spending in real (inflation-adjusted) terms was flat in September, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. The unchanged monthly reading marks the weakest month for real consumer spending since in four months. “Many consumers, especially middle- and lower-income households, face widespread affordability issues that force them to be more cautious and value-based shoppers,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide.

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