The market premium for the 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade at a narrow gap over a “fair value” estimate, based on the average estimate for three models run by CapitalSpectator.com.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Macro Briefing: 19 December 2025
US consumer inflation’s annual pace slowed more than expected in November, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Headline CPI dipped to a 2.7% increase vs. the year-ago level while core CPI fell to 2.6%, a four-year low. Some analysts raised doubts about the numbers, citing the disruption in data collection due to the government shutdown. “The report wasn’t just noisy and full of gaps, it provided a downwardly biased perspective of inflation,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. “The downward bias stemmed from the carry-forward methodology that assumed an unchanged price index in October for all surveyed data – imparting a downward bias to inflation dynamics.”
Foreign Bonds On Track To Outperform US Fixed Income In 2025
Echoing the strong run in foreign equities in 2025, bond markets ex-US are also having a good year. Using a set of ETFs to track the major international buckets of fixed-income securities shows across-the-board outperformance over a popular US benchmark through Wednesday’s close (Dec. 17).
Macro Briefing: 18 December 2025
Business inflation expectations in December remained steady at a 2.2% pace for the year-ahead outlook, according to the Atlanta Fed’s latest survey data. The current estimate is relatively middling for the range of results reported in 2025.
Weak Payrolls Trend Highlights Emerging Risk For The Economy
The delayed payrolls reports finally arrived, but the news is mixed, at best. The Labor Department said that sharp swings in hiring unfolded in October and November. Looking through the monthly volatility suggests that hiring is slowing, slipping to a pace that’s raises a warning flag for the economic outlook in early 2026.
Macro Briefing: 17 December 2025
US payrolls rebounded moderately in November after posting a sharp decline in October, the Labor Dept. reports. The October slide was largely due to federal government employees leave jobs after accepting buyouts from the Trump administration’s DOGE initiative. Meanwhile, the unemployment rose to 4.6%, a four-year high. “The US economy is in a hiring recession,” Heather Long, chief economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote on X.
Risk-On Market Signals Persist Ahead Of US Economic Reports
The resumption of US economic reports continues this week with two key updates for November: payrolls report and consumer inflation. Analysts will be closely watching how markets react.
Macro Briefing: 16 December 2025
US homebuilder sentiment edged up in December, but continues to reflect negative sentiment about the market outlook. Builder confidence for newly built single-family homes is 39 this month, well below the neutral 50 mark. “The recent easing of monetary policy should help builder loan conditions at the start of 2026,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “However, builders continue to face supply-side headwinds, as regulatory costs and material prices remain stubbornly high. Rising inventory also has increased competition for newly built homes.”
US Economic Updates This Week Will Help Clear The Data Fog
Lingering effects from the government shutdown continue to blur economic analysis, but two reports scheduled this week will provide markets with some much-needed clarity on how the fourth-quarter is unfolding.
Macro Briefing: 15 December 2025
US 30-year Treasury yield starts the trading week at its highest level in more than three months. The long-bond rate, the most inflation-sensitive maturity, closed up on Friday at 4.84%, the highest since early September.
