The government’s initial estimate of fourth quarter economic activity is expected to confirm that the healing continues following last year’s dramatic coronavirus-triggered recession. Although this week’s data will reflect a sharp deceleration in growth from the unusually high increase in Q3, Thursday’s release (Jan. 28) from the Bureau of Economic Analysis is on track to deliver upbeat news.

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* Janet Yellen confirmed by Senate as Treasury Secretary
* House formally delivers Trump impeachment charge to Senate
* Biden to announce ban on new oil and gas drilling on federal lands
* Minnesota confirms case of more contagious coronavirus variant from Brazil
* Xi’s speech at World Economic Forum highlights US-China challenges
* China says it will conduct military exercises South China Sea this week
* Biden faces challenging balancing act in first call to Russia’s Putin
* Wall Street isn’t worried about sharp rise in federal debt–for now
* Market volatility in 2020 was no threat to index funds, study finds
* Will Fed’s Powell avoid past QE mistakes in the last year of his term?
* US economic growth trend strengthened slightly in December:

Shares in emerging markets led a broad rally in global shares last week, based on a set of exchange traded funds representing the major asset classes through Friday’s close (Jan. 22). The week’s losses were concentrated in foreign bonds and commodities.

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* House prepares to send Trump impeachment charge to Senate
* Biden to impose new int’l travel restrictions to fight new Covid variants
* China provocatively flies warplanes close to Taiwan over the weekend
* China overtook US as top destination for new foreign direct investment in 2020
* Widespread protests in Russia are encouraged by West, Moscow claims
* Mexico’s president contracts the coronavirus, reports mild symptoms
* German business sentiment continues to roll over after 2020 bounce
* US Composite PMI (GDP proxy) reflects solid growth in January:

● Work: A Deep History, from the Stone Age to the Age of Robots
James Suzman
Review via The New Yorker
In “Work: A Deep History, from the Stone Age to the Age of Robots” (Penguin Press), the South African anthropologist James Suzman, a specialist on the Khoisan peoples, disputes the economic definition of “work.” One culture’s work is another’s leisure; one people’s needs are, to another people, mere wants. Suzman proposes, instead, to define “work” as “purposefully expending energy or effort on a task to achieve a goal or end,” a definition so committed to its universality as to risk becoming meaningless. He insists that the key word here is “purposeful”: to act purposefully is to understand cause and effect. Among the traits that distinguish Homo sapiens from other primates, Suzman argues, is this capacity, which—because of humans’ harnessing of, for instance, fire—makes possible a different relationship to provisioning.

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In this issue:

• Global stock markets rebound, led by Asia ex-Japan shares
• Portfolio strategy benchmarks rally
• Managed risk strategies struggle

The bull market revives: Equity markets around the world closed higher this week. Last week’s stumble inspired a new round of worries, but a lot can change in a week. For now, the bulls show no signs that they’re ready to throw in the towel on the post-coronavirus-crash recovery.

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Investor sentiment is a slippery beast, but a valuable one – if you can find reliable data. Knowing that the crowd is in a state of irrational exuberance, or hopeless despair, is especially useful. Nothing strengthens confidence like market extremes when it comes to estimating expected return and risk. But there’s that data issue to consider.

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* Biden will sign executive orders today providing Covid-19 relief to workers
* Senate Republicans oppose to Biden’s coronavirus relief bill
* Eurozone economic activity contracts for a 3rd month in Jan via PMI survey data
* UK economy falls in January, biggest decline in 8 months via PMI survey
* UK retail sales posted a record decline in 2020
* Japan’s economic activity continues to decline in January via PMI survey data
* US jobless claims continue to rise at an alarming rate: +900,000 last week
* Mid-Atlantic manufacturing activity surges in January via Philly Fed Mfg Index
* US housing starts rose to 15-year high in December:

It’s too early in the new year to draw conclusions, but the initial results for 2021 look promising for equity markets in Asia outside of Japan, based on set of exchange-listed funds that represent the world’s main equity regions through Jan. 20.

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* Biden signs 17 excecutive orders on Wed., reversing several Trump policies
* Biden will sign 10 executive orders today, including new Covid-19 plan
* Biden’s overall policy agenda depends on results in battling Covid-19
* Biden faces several major economic challenges in the months ahead
* US homebuilder sentiment eases in Jan but still reflects bullish conditions
* US stock market (S&P 500) rises to record high on first day of Biden presidency: