It’s been a good year so far for the momentum factor. That’s hardly surprising given that momentum was red hot in 2024. Momentum, it seems, still has momentum.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Macro Briefing: 30 January 2025
The Federal Reserve left its target rate unchanged at a 4.25%-4.50% range in yesterday’s policy announcement. Following the decision, Fed funds futures are pricing in an 82% probability that the central bank will continue to leave rates unchanged at the next FOMC meeting on March 19. Meanwhile, President Trump on Wednesday said the central bank “failed to stop the problem they created with inflation” and have done a “terrible job on bank regulation.”
US Q4 GDP Growth Nowcast Rises Ahead Of Thursday’s Report
Economic output in the fourth quarter is expected to increase at a solid rate in this week’s initial GDP estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Thursday’s report from the government (Jan. 29) is on track to rise 2.7%, based on the median estimate from several sources compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 29 January 2025
US Consumer Confidence Index fell in January, but “has been moving sideways in a relatively stable, narrow range since 2022. January was no exception,” writes the chief economist at The Conference Board. “All five components of the Index deteriorated but consumers’ assessments of the present situation experienced the largest decline. Notably, views of current labor market conditions fell for the first time since September, while assessments of business conditions weakened for the second month in a row.”
Does China AI Threaten US Tech Dominance?
And just like that, the formerly high-flying US tech sector is on the defensive. If you blinked, you missed it.
Anxiety about the competitive threat from Chinese artificial intelligence lab DeepSeek triggered a sharp selloff in US equities on Monday, with the worst of the decline centered in tech. Chipmaker Nvidia was especially hard hit, suffering a near-$600 billion loss of market cap in one day.
Macro Briefing: 28 January 2025
US economic activity strengthened in December, according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. This benchmark rose to the strongest reading last month since May, reflecting a firmer pace of growth at 2024’s close.
Will The Trump Factor Influence Markets And The Fed This Week?
Investors this week will be keenly watching how or if the Federal Reserve and the bond market cooperate with Donald Trump’s order for lower interest rates. Although the central bank is unlikely to make decisions based on directives from the White House, the Trump 2.0 policy agenda will surely be a factor, one way or another.
Macro Briefing: 27 January 2025
US Composite Output Index, a survey-based GDP proxy, posted slower growth in January, S&P Global reports. Business activity expansion downshifted from December’s 32-month high to a softer pace. “Although output growth slowed slightly in January, sustained confidence suggests that this slowdown might be short-lived,” says Chris Williamson, chief business cconomist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. “Especially encouraging is the upturn in hiring that has been fueled by the improved business outlook, with jobs being created at a rate not seen for two-and-a-half years.”
Book Bits: 25 January 2025
● Gambling Man: The Secret Story of the World’s Greatest Disruptor, Masayoshi Son
Lionel Barber
Essay by author via Harvard Business Review
Few characters are more enigmatic or misunderstood than Masayoshi Son, the billionaire founder and CEO of SoftBank, the Japanese media technology conglomerate. In Japan and in western media, he is cast as a dreamer, financial engineer, and speculator — an object of suspicion who has risked financial ruin more than once in a five-decade career.
His life story is a Forrest Gump-like journey through all the key moments in recent business history: from the launch of the personal computer to the birth of the internet, the dotcom boom and bust, the rise of China, the global financial crisis, and the advent of artificial intelligence. As the British writer Simon Nixon observed in a review of Gambling Man, my biography of Son, “He seems to have known everyone and owned everything, or at least tried to buy it.”
Trump Says He’ll ‘Demand That Interest Rates Drop Immediately’
In President Trump’s first week in office he issued a blitz of executive orders, but perhaps his most ambitious statement to date is his claim yesterday that he would order the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.