US consumer inflation expectations “remain elevated,” according to revised data for this month’s poll published by the Unviersity of Michigan. “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.” The update also shows consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, tumbling 8% from March.
● The Tax-Smart Donor: Optimize Your Lifetime Giving Plan
Phil DeMuth
Summary via Amazon
Want to make your charitable giving go further? This groundbreaking guide reveals how to maximize the impact of every dollar you donate through strategic tax planning. Rather than making ad hoc charitable gifts, learn how to develop an intentional lifetime giving strategy that leverages the tax code to your advantage. From simple techniques like bunching donations and giving appreciated stock, to advanced strategies involving charitable trusts and retirement accounts, The Tax-Smart Donor shows you how to be a more effective philanthropist at any income level. Whether you’re making annual gifts to your alma mater or planning a major charitable legacy, this essential resource will help you do more good while keeping more of your hard-earned money away from the IRS.
Tariffs, Tokens, and Turmoil: The Market Fallout from Trump’s Policy Uncertainty
David Krause (Marquette University)
April 2025
This paper investigates the financial consequences of economic policy shifts following President Trump’s second inauguration in January 2025. Using empirical data from April 2024 through April 7, 2025, this study assesses asset performance across U.S. equities, cryptocurrencies, gold, and bonds. The administration’s aggressive trade protectionism, ambiguous digital asset directives, and deregulatory approach to artificial intelligence have triggered heightened market volatility, diminished investor confidence, and a rotation toward defensive assets. Indexed returns reveal that traditional safe havens like gold outperformed riskier assets, while the Magnificent Seven equities and cryptocurrencies have experienced sharp post-inauguration drawdowns. The findings highlight the destabilizing role of policy uncertainty in capital markets, raising critical concerns for investors and policymakers regarding the repricing of political risk. This paper concludes that inconsistent economic governance is contributing to systemic fragility and recommends a more coherent regulatory approach to restore investor trust and improve market efficiency.
US jobless claims edged higher last week, but remain low. New filings for unemployment rose to 222,000 for the week through April 19, reflecting a stable labor market. Despite concerns for the economic outlook fueled by tariffs, this leading indicator for employment has yet to signal a warning for hiring.
President Trump says he doesn’t plan to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, but the calls for rate cuts continue. The central bank, however, is expected to leave rates unchanged at the next month’s policy meeting. For the moment, it’s still a battle of the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object.
US economic activity continues to slow in April, according to PMI survey data. Output rose last month at its slowest pace since Dec 2023 via the US Composite Output Index, a GDP proxy. “The early flash PMI data for April point to a marked slowing of business activity growth at the start of the second quarter, accompanied by a slump in optimism about the outlook,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which published the report. “At the same time, price pressures intensified, creating a headache for a central bank which is coming under increasing pressure to shore up a weakening economy just as inflation looks set to rise.”
Next week’s initial estimate for US GDP in the first quarter is on track for a sharp downshift in growth, based on the median nowcast calculated by CapitalSpectator.com via several sources.
The IMF cut its global growth outlook for 2025, citing tariffs as a factor. US output is expected to downshift to a 1.8% increase this year, nine-tenths of a percentage point below the previous forecast in January. “Intensifying downside risks dominate the outlook, amid escalating trade tensions and financial market adjustments,” the IMF advised in its revised World Economic Outlook. “Divergent and swiftly changing policy positions or deteriorating sentiment could lead to even tighter global financial conditions. Ratcheting up a trade war and heightened trade policy uncertainty may further hinder both short-term and long-term growth prospects. Scaling back international cooperation could jeopardize progress toward a more resilient global economy.”
A new world order has emerged in the three weeks since President Trump on Apr. 2 announced “Liberation Day” and rolled out US tariffs. From an investing perspective it’s safe to say it’s been a shock heard around the world, and markets are furiously repricing a new set of risk factors for a radically different outlook for economic activity, financial assets, trade policy, and assumptions about safe havens.
Gold surged to another record high in Monday’s trading, closing near $3,432 an ounce, and in early trading today it reached $3,500. “As tariff tensions continue to move at a fevered pitch, we continue to see gold prices move to the upside as a safe haven response,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.
