The “fair value” for the US 10-year Treasury yield edged higher in March vs. the previous month and is now approaching the 4.0% mark – the highest estimate in 16 years. The analysis is based on the average of three models run by CapitalSpectator.com.
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Macro Briefing: 11 April 2025
A key technical signal for the US stock market looks set to go risk-off in the days ahead, based on the S&P 500’s 50-day vs. 200-day averages. Short of a strong rally in the immediate future, the so-called death cross may be near, which some traders will view as a bearish signal for the market’s outlook. Although the signal’s history is far from perfect for market timing, it’s widely followed and so a risk-off switch will likely be seen as a new factor tipping the odds in favor of a bear-market forecast.
US Q1 GDP Nowcast Continues To Ease, Signaling Stall-Speed Risk
The official first-quarter GDP report from the government that’s scheduled for Apr. 30 is expected to post a sharp slowdown in growth, based on the median estimate from several sources compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 10 April 2025
Trump pauses tariffs for 90 days for most countries and hikes import fees for China. What hasn’t change is that uncertainty for the global economy continues. No one’s quite sure what will happen after the 90-day pause. One source of confusion is how the administration will negotiate dozens of bilateral trade deals. “That is a huge task to negotiate simultaneously with that many trading partners over that many issues,” said Greta Peisch, who was general counsel for the U.S. trade representative’s office during the Biden administration.
Fed Faces Difficult Balancing Act In A Global Trade War
Is inflation or slower growth, and perhaps recession, the priority? This basic question hangs over the Federal Reserve as it grapples with deciding how to respond to global trade war.
Macro Briefing: 9 April 2025
Trump’s new tariffs take effect on biggest US trading partners, creating more uncertainty for the global economy. “The primary question… is whether or not there will be negotiations,” said Thierry Wizman, a global strategist at the investment bank Macquarie. “And no one has an answer to that because it’s going to depend on the approach and the disposition of the negotiating parties.”
Uncertainty Clouds Outlook For Trump’s Tariff Goals
Pursuing a structual, sudden change in US trade policy is one thing. That alone is disruptive. Even if it’s a net plus in the longer term (a debatable proposition), the current burden that’s weighing on markets and the economic outlook is a lack of clarity on what the end game is and how the US will get there. It adds up to a one-two gut punch for investor, consumer and business sentiment.
Macro Briefing: 8 April 2025
China says it will “fight to the end” as it retaliates against US import tariffs, which rose to over 100% on Wednesday in response to China’s decision to match the “reciprocal” duties Trump announced last week. “If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated!”
Is A US Recession Inevitable?
A rising chorus of forecasts suggest as much. But for the moment, this is still guesswork as markets struggle to price in a dramatically altered macro outlook due to the rising risk of a global trade war.
Macro Briefing: 7 April 2025
President Trump hints he’s ready to negotiate on tariffs as stocks around the world continue to tumble on Monday. On Sunday evening he said he’s “open to talking” with world leaders on new trade deals. “I’m willing to deal with China, but they have to solve their surplus,” he said aboard Air Force One. But he also advised that the tariffs will continue until the US trade deficit is eliminated: “Unless we solve that problem, I’m not going to make a deal.”
