● The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
David Spiegelhalter
Review via The Economist
… books that successfully communicate how mathematicians think, but are aimed at those not already in the tribe, are both valuable and rare. Over the decades many eager students have devoured Thomas Körner’s “The Pleasures of Counting” (1996) and Sir Timothy Gowers’s “Mathematics: A Very Short Introduction” (2002). Now Sir David Spiegelhalter, emeritus professor of statistics at the University of Cambridge, has added to the genre with “The Art of Uncertainty”. His new book will appeal to many more than just aspiring mathematicians, for its topic is universal: how to analyse chance, ignorance and risk.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
US Q3 Economic Growth Nowcast Strengthens
Recent economic data has lifted CapitalSpectator.com’s median growth estimate for the upcoming third-quarter GDP report. Using a variety of sources to generate a median nowcast, today’s revision reflects a slightly stronger expansion compared with the solid rise in Q2.
Macro Briefing: 18 October 2024
US retail sales rose for a third straight month in September, beating expectations. Spending increased 0.4% last month, marking a faster rate vs. the tepid 0.1% rise in August. “Strong retail spending last month suggests the recovery maintained strength through the end of the third quarter,” says FHN Financial Economic Analyst Mark Streiber.
Are Reports Of Small-Cap Stocks’ Revival Prospects Premature?
The rally in recent days of the Russell 2000 Index, a widely followed benchmark of small-cap shares, has revived hope anew that this slice of the equity market is finally set to recover after a long stretch of underperformance. But we’ve been here before, multiple times in recent years. Is this time different? Maybe, but the evidence is still a bit thin.
Macro Briefing: 17 October 2024
A second Trump administration would radically change the dynamics of world trade, The Wall Street Journal reports. The former president says if elected he would implement higher trade tariffs — tariffs that may reach their highest level since the 1930s. In that case, the change would sharply reverse decades of policy adjustments that favored a free-trade bias in the world economy.
Tracking The Current US Business Cycle In Four Charts
The US economy continues to defy the recession forecasts that received much attention in the summer. The primary drivers of the economic resilience: strong growth in payrolls and consumer spending. By contrast, industrial production, after a strong start once the pandemic recession ended, has faltered recently. Meanwhile, the revival of personal income has suffered one of its weakest runs during economic expansions since 1970.
Macro Briefing: 16 October 2024
Electricity demand in the world is expected to increase much faster than overall energy demand over the next decade, predicts the IMF in the agency’s annual World Energy Outlook. Factors that are driving up demand include the rise of electric vehicles, air-conditioners and data centers.
Despite A Robust US Economy, Markets Still Pricing In Rate Cuts
Fears of a US recession in the near term have faded recently, but rate cuts are still on the agenda. The combination of a robust economy and expectations for monetary easing strike some observers as misguided, but Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Monday explained that the central bank is still anticipating that more easing is likely. The concession to the firmer economic data of late: the cuts will be softer, he noted. But if hawks looking for a sign that cuts were off the table, they were disappointed in Waller’s speech at Stanford University yesterday.
Macro Briefing: 15 October 2024
Interest rate cuts going forward will be less aggressive, says Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. Referring to recent economic reports, he advises that “the data is signaling that the economy may not be slowing as much as desired… While we do not want to overreact to this data or look through it, I view the totality of the data as saying monetary policy should proceed with more caution on the pace of rate cuts than was needed at the September meeting.” Meanwhile, the policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield continues to trade around the 4% mark:
2024 Shaping Up As A Bumper Year For Most Asset Classes
Generating solid returns with a globally diversified portfolio strategy has been a breeze this year. Short of making extreme bets in the handful of losers among the major asset classes, the tail wind of beta has otherwise been kind – especially for US-oriented strategies.