Macro Briefing: 1 March 2023

* US Treasury official goes to Beijing despite US-China tensions
* China’s mfg sentiment rebounds, reflecting strongest growth since 2012
* Euro area manufacturing production stabilizes in February: PMI sentiment
* US home prices fell for sixth-straight month in December
* Chicago PMI continues to indicate weak business-activity conditions in February
* US Consumer Confidence Index eased again in February:

Tight US labor market continues to suggest recession risk is low. “The labor market is so tight that it’s hard to see how we can experience something like back in the ’80s,” says Fernando Martin, assistant vice president in the research division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. “You’re not going to see big increases in GDP growth or anything like that. But unless we start seeing indicators that the labor market starts deteriorating, it’s hard to start predicting a recession in the traditional sense.”