Macro Briefing: 1 November 2023

* What does the UAW victory mean for the labor movement?
* China factory activity unexpectedly contracts in October
* Europe flirts with recession after Q3 GDP posts slight decline
* US Consumer Confidence Index fell for third straight month in October
* US employment costs rise in Q3 as wage growth picks up
* Chicago PMI continues to show business contraction in October
* US home prices rose for a seventh-straight month in August:

The Federal Reserve is expected to leaves interest rates unchanged in today’s policy announcement, scheduled for 2:00 pm eastern, based on Fed funds futures. The market is also pricing in moderately high probabilities for holding rates steady at the next two meetings. “[Fed Chair Jerome] Powell wants to play it right down the middle,” says Wilmer Stith, bond portfolio manager for Wilmington Trust. “They’re well into their tightening cycle, if not done already.”

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