Macro Briefing: 1 September 2023

* US consumer spending accelerated in July
* Slowing sales at Dollar General suggest softer US consumer spending ahead
* Eurozone manufacturing PMI reflects “steepening downturn in August”
* China’s economic headwinds may be linked to the ‘paradox of thrift’
* China Manufacturing PMI shows stronger operating conditions in August
* US mortgage rates ease after 5 weeks of climbing
* US jobless claims eased last week, remaining near multi-decade low
* Chicago PMI survey data continues to indicate contracting mfg activity in August
* US PCE inflation edges up for 1-year change through July:

NY Fed’s Weekly Economic Index rose again for the week through Aug. 26, increasing to the highest level in 2023. The firmer readings of late suggest that US economic activity will continue to post a moderate growth rate of 2%-plus for GDP in Q3 and extend the pace reported for Q2.