Macro Briefing: 12 October 2023

* Israel-Hamas war may disrupt gas output and major shipping chokepoints
* Israel-Hamas conflict expected to have limited impact on global economy: Yellen
* Speaker-designate Scalise struggling to win votes for House speakership
* UAW strike expands at Ford plant at Kentucky
* Fed minutes: officials see ‘restrictive’ policy in place until inflation eases
* Business inflation outlook relatively unchanged at 2.4% in October
* US wholesale inflation rose more than expected in September:

Fed funds futures continue to price in end, or at least a pause, for Federal Reserve rate hikes over the next three FOMC meetings. The New York Times reports: “Several top Fed officials have indicated in recent days that the central bank’s effort to cool the economy through higher borrowing costs is being amplified by recent market moves that are essentially doing some of that job for them.”

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