Macro Briefing: 14 February 2023

* Biden to name Fed Vice Chair Brainard as top White House economic adviser
* Fed will hold rates higher for longer, predicts Wells Fargo economist
* So-called supercore inflation will be in focus in today’s CPI report
* US consumers still spending despite higher inflation
* Japan’s economy expands 1.1% in 2022, down from 2.1% rise in 2021
* New head of Japan’s central bank announced, first change in a decade
* Ford will build $3.5 billion battery plant in Michigan for electric vehicles
* Policy-sensitive 2-year US Treasury yield ticks up to 3-month high:

Is the recent drop in inflation transitory? “If we have a labor market that just refuses to break and if we now have inflation that’s starting to accelerate, then I think that really increases that likelihood that the Fed just keeps going,” says Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC.

As China reopens, will it deliver a new round of broad, deep support to the global economy? Not necessarily, advises Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC. “China will deliver a powerful economic recovery, but the growth spillover to the rest of the world will be much more muted in this cycle because of the nature of the economic rebound.” The reasoning is that early numbers for China show that strongest sources of growth are coming from services industries, which tend to benefit the domestic economy .