Macro Briefing: 17 August 2023

* Fed minutes minutes show officials see ‘upside risks’ to inflation
* More rate hikes possible, says former Fed Governor Randall Kroszner
* Atlanta Fed GDPNow model’s nowcast for US Q3 GDP surges to +5.8%
* Business inflation expectations fall “significantly” to 2.5% in Aug: Atlanta Fed
* China housing slump worse than official data show, according to property agents
* US industrial output rebounds sharply in July after two months of decline
* US housing construction recovers with strong gain in July
* 10-year US Treasury yield rises to 4.28%, highest in 15 years:

Fed funds futures still pricing in expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged in upcoming policy meetings, based on CME data. The implied probability is high for no change in rates at the Sep. 20 FOMC meeting, but the outlook for standing pat weakens in the outlook for the subsequent two meetings.