Macro Briefing: 17 June 2022

* Putin continues to wield Russia’s energy weapon with a deft hand
* China launches its third, most advanced aircraft carrier
* More than 60% of executives see recession in next 12 to 18 months
* European leaders lay out path to European Union membership for Ukraine
* World Trade Organization changes global trading rules for first time in years
* Cosmetics maker Revlon files for bankruptcy, citing supply-chain disruption
* Philly Fed Mfg Index turns negative in June
* US jobless claims tick lower, but still reflect strong labor market
* US housing starts fall in May to lowest level in more than a year:

Food, energy and shelter are driving inflation, representing more than half of the surge in overall prices. “Those are the basics,” says Tom Porcelli, chief US economist at RBC Capital Markets. “That’s what you have to spend money on. You have to spend money on shelter, you have to spend money on food, and most of us have to spend money on energy. [Inflation] represents a meaningful challenge for consumer spending.”

US Southwest continues to suffer from megadrought conditions. “We’re definitely looking at a hotter future,” says Katrina Bennett, hydrologist with the federal government’s Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico. “There will be more of that wet to dry sort of scenarios we’re seeing, but regardless, we’re going to see more minimum streamflow, increase in drier soils and lower snowpacks, which all together will lead to likelihood of drought increasing across the board especially in the upper areas where we really haven’t seen that intense drought stress yet.”

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