Macro Briefing: 2 August 2022

* US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi expected to visit Taiwan despite China warnings
* China warplanes fly close to dividing line in Taiwan Strait ahead of Pelosi visit
* US construction spending tumbled in June amid sharp decline in homebuilding
* Global Mfg PMI falls to 2-year low but still indicates growth
* US Manufacturing PMI at lowest for two years but still above neutral level
* US ISM Mfg Index ticks lower in July but continues to indicate growth:

How will China respond to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s planned visit to Taiwan? Experts see a mix of flying warplanes close to Taiwan, firing missiles near the island and economic retaliation as components of Beijing’s playbook.

3mo/10yr US Treasury yield curve inverts, signaling elevated recession risk:

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