Macro Briefing: 24 January 2024

* Trump appears set to be GOP nominee after winning NH primary
* Eurozone economy continues contracting in January via PMI survey data
* China central bank announces policy support to boost economic growth
* Economic shockwaves spreading from Red Sea turmoil
* Thursday’s US Q4 GDP report may confirm that ‘soft landing’ is here
* Climate economics is relevant just about everywhere
* S&P 500 edged higher on Tuesday, setting another record high:

Policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield trades near 8-month low despite softer expectations for a rate cut at Federal Reserve’s March 20 FOMC meeting. Fed funds futures are estimating an implied 51% probability that the central bank will reduce its target rate from the current 5.25%-to-5.50% range. The roughly 50-50 outlook marks a sharp decline in the estimated rate-cut probability vs. recent history.

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