Macro Briefing: 25 April 2023

* GOP works to secure support for this week’s vote on debt ceiling package
* Commercial property faces harsh climate amid rising rates and remote work
* Deflation risk is rising in China
* Chile set to nationalize its lithium industry, which controls 30% of global supply
* First Republic, a troubled regional bank, says deposits fell 41% in Q1
* “Crypto is dead in America,” predicts longtime bitcoin bull
* Texas factory activity is flat in April after modest growth in March
* US economic activity was below trend in March, but recession risk is still low:

Fed funds futures price in path for one more rate hike and then a pause, based on implied probabilities for the next three FOMC policy meetings.