Macro Briefing: 27 December 2023

* Escalating attacks on US troops and shipping threaten wider Middle East war
* How did so many economists mistakenly forecast a US recession?
* 76% of economists see US recession risk at 50% or less in next 12 months
* US home prices post biggest gain of 2023 in October
* Texas factory activity stabilized in December after November contraction
* US economic activity rebounds in November–Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index:

Gold trades near record high in Tuesday’s session, supported by expectations of lower interest rates next year and a weaker US dollar in 2023. “There are a lot of ifs and buts, permutations and combinations, but the fact remains that no matter what, the Fed’s not going to hike the rates again… it’s the base case scenario (for gold),” says Kunal Shah, head of research at Nirmal Bang Commodities in Mumbai. “Raising rates is out of question as per us and with things improving gradually, market is starting to price in rate cuts.”

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