Macro Briefing: 28 June 2023

* Biden unveils “Bidenomics” re-election pitch to voters
* US reviewing new restrictions on AI chip exports to China
* Will exports pull China out of its economic slowdown?
* US Consumer Confidence Index rises to 17-month high in June
* US home prices post first year-over-year decline in 11 years in April
* US nearshoring push helps lift Mexico exports to near-record level
* Walgreens stock falls as company warns consumers pull back on spending
* Fed funds futures price in moderately high odds for another 1/4-point rate hike:

Policy-sensitive 2-year US Treasury yield continues to trade near 3-1/2 month high as consumer confidence rises to 17-month high, futures market prices in moderately high odds for another rate hike and economic data convinces some economists to downplay recession risks. “Consumer attitudes remain resilient,” writes Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons in a note on Tuesday. “There are storm clouds on the horizon, but the consumer is growing tired of the expectation that a recession is imminent.”

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