Macro Briefing: 28 November 2023

* Will emerging markets rally in 2024 if interest rates peak?
* US liquidity is rebounding, providing support for stock market
* US gasoline prices fall for 60 straight days
* Sticky US core inflation will keep rates high, economists predict
* US median price for new houses sold fell 17.6% in Oct–deepest slide on record:

Bullish strategists see S&P 500 Index reaching new record high in 2024. “We believe 2024 will be Year 2 of at least a 3-5 year process that will see US stocks exhibit more normal and typical performance, paced by a backdrop of normal and typical GDP and earnings growth, valuation, and bond yield ranges,” predicts BMO chief investment strategist Brian Belski. Yahoo Finance reports: “Both Deutsche Bank and BMO see the S&P 500 delivering earnings per share of $250 in the year ahead, the highest projections on Wall Street thus far. The higher projection for earnings pushes both calls for the S&P 500 just above the 5,000 predictions Bank of America and RBC released last week.” Nouriel Roubini, however, remains cautious on the outlook, countering that stagflation will remain a headwind for the global economy. The chief economist at Atlas Capital Team advises: “Globally, losses for bondholders and equity investors alike could grow into the tens of trillions of dollars over the next decade,” he warns.