Macro Briefing: 30 October 2023

* Israel ground assault into Gaza expands on Monday
* Markets pricing in low probability for wider Mideast war
* Initial GDPNow nowcast for US Q4 GDP: +2.3%, down from Q3’s red-hot +4.9%
* US consumer spending rose by a brisk 0.4% in September
* Several factors are supporting US consumer spending spree
* Americans say household expenses outpacing income, poll finds
* Some estimates equate recent rise in bond yields with two, three Fed rate hikes
* Gold near $2000/oz. as Israel starts ground offensive:

Core PCE inflation — the Fed’s preferred measures — slips to 3.7% year-over-year rate in September despite a pickup in the monthly change. Friday’s update “suggests that the Fed needs to remain on guard for somewhat higher core inflation prints before year-end,” Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights LLC, advised in a note to clients. “Indeed, it seems like there are some upside risks heading into Q4.”