Macro Briefing: 4 October 2022

* North Korea fires missile over Japan in escalation of threatening behavior
* United Nations agency calls on Fed, other central banks to end rate hikes
* Pipeline sabotage is warning to West from Putin, Russia experts say
* Oil prices could rise to $100/barrel as OPEC+ considers production cuts
* Global manufacturing activity contracted in September via PMI survey data
* Construction spending in US falls the most in August in 1-1/2 years
* US Mfg PMI in September shows “renewed expansion”, but…
* US ISM Mfg Index edges closer to no-growth mark in September:

Retail real estate market is rebounding after long period of retrenchment, The Wall Street Journal reports: “US retail vacancy fell to 6.1% in the second quarter, the lowest level in at least 15 years, while asking rents for US shopping centers in the quarter were 16% higher than five years ago, according to real-estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield.” Meanwhile, “More stores opened than closed in the US last year for the first time since 1995, according to an analysis by Morgan Stanley, and some analysts say they expect that trend to continue this year even with recession fears rising.”

Developing nations set to bear brunt of approaching global recession, warns a division of the United Nations. “All regions will be affected, but alarm bells are ringing most for developing countries, many of which are edging closer to debt default,” predicts a report from the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).