The government’s second-quarter GDP report scheduled for later this month is still on track to post a moderate recovery in output, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 18 July 2025
US retail sales rebounded in June after two straight monthly declines. “Don’t count the American consumer out yet,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in commentary. “There’s still a lot of trepidation about tariffs and likely price hikes, but consumers are willing to buy if they feel they can get a good deal.”
Industrials Holding On To Lead As Top Equity Sector In 2025
In a volatile year for stocks, as tariffs and other factors roil expectations and keep investors on edge, industrial stocks are the market darlings since the April rebound.
Macro Briefing: 17 July 2025
US producer price inflation unexpectedly cooled in June. Wholesale prices were unchanged in June, marking a contrast with firmer consumer prices for analyzing if tariffs will boost inflation in the months ahead.
10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 16 July 2025
The market premium for the US Treasury yield edged lower in June, based on analysis using a “fair value” estimate. But with inflation showing signs of heating up due to tariffs, economic conditions don’t look particularly conducive for an ongoing decline in the market premium for the near term.
Macro Briefing: 16 July 2025
US consumer inflation’s 1-year pace picked up in June. The consumer price index rose 2.7% at the headline level vs. the year-ago level, up from 2.4% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the highest increase since February. Citing tariffs as a factor, “Inflation is going kick into a much higher gear in coming months,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “We are on the leading edge of that now, but it will become clearly evident in the months ahead.” Omair Sharif, founder and president of Inflation Insights, wrote in a note to clients: The higher inflation data “showed that tariffs are beginning to bite.”
The Everything Rally In 2025 Rolls On
Judging by the headlines, there’s a lot to worry about. But if markets are anxious it’s not obvious in the year-to-date results for the major asset classes, which are posting across-the-board gains in 2025 via a set of ETFs through Monday’s close (Jan. 14).
Macro Briefing: 15 July 2025
Nvidia receives approval from the Trump administration to sell its advanced H20 computer chips used to develop artificial intelligence to China. “The US government has assured Nvidia that licenses will be granted, and Nvidia hopes to start deliveries soon,” the company’s CEO Jensen Huang wrote on social media.
Will Tariffs Derail The Bull Run In Global Equities Ex-US?
A single decision has been crucial for a global equities strategy this year: selecting the weights for foreign vs. US stocks. The higher the weight in shares outside the US, the higher the performance so far in 2025. But as President Trump presses ahead with plans to raise tariffs, it’s reasonable to wonder if the gravy train in foreign stocks will persist in the face of an aggressive US trade policy.
Macro Briefing: 14 July 2025
As companies begin to report Q2 earnings this week, investors will be alert to the possibility that tariffs are putting pressure on profits. “So far, the impact of tariffs has been very muted when it comes to economic data on inflation, consumer spending, and business activity,” notes Morningstar. Factset projects that S&P 500 earnings will increase 4.8% for Q2, an estimate that marks the lowest earnings growth reported since the 4.0% rise for Q4:2023.
