Foreign fixed-income markets from a US investor perspective have been an unappealing asset class lately – with a glaring exception: corporate bonds in emerging markets. Year to date, this slice of global fixed-income securities is hot, based on a set of ETFs through Thursday’s close (May 9). The rest of the field is struggling.
Macro Briefing: 10 May 2024
* Defensive stocks are driving the current market rally
* 30-year mortgage rate drops for the first time in four weeks
* Long delays between Fed actions tend to be good for stocks
* UK economic activity rebounds as country exits recession
* US jobless claims rise to highest level since August:
US Labor Market Cycle Has Peaked. Will Recession Soon Follow?
There are many ways to monitor recession risk, but any one indicator in isolation is flawed. Context in the form of reviewing a wide variety of metrics is essential for minimizing noise. But in the search of early warning signs of trouble it’s useful to focus on the labor market, which is arguably the key driver of economic strength and weakness. Caution is still required, but a particular measure of the ebb and flow of payrolls is signaling a warning and so it’s worthwhile to take a closer look.
Macro Briefing: 9 May 2024
* Boston Fed president joins the view that rates will stay higher for longer
* China’s factory glut alarms the world, but easy fixes are nowhere on the horizon
* China’s imports surge in April, beating expectations by wide margin
* Americans reduced credit card debt sharply in March
* US stocks (S&P 500) pull back, still trading below record high set in March:
Will Housing Inflation Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer?
Housing is among the most interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy. It’s also one of the most cyclical and crucial inputs for the business cycle. On that basis, one could reasonably expect that the sharp runup in interest rates over the past two years would have crushed the trend in housing prices. For a while that was the effect, but the dramatic slide in the year-over-year change in US house prices is accelerating again. The reflation is moderate so far, at least compared with 2021-2022. But it’s notable that housing prices are once more looking resilient after the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive tightening policy in decades and before rate cuts have arrived.
Macro Briefing: 8 May 2024
* US economic growth will continue to weaken until Fed cuts rates: Morningstar
* Rents expected to be last hurdle in taming global inflation
* Fed may need to hold rates steady in 2024, says Minneapolis Fed President
* US consumer credit growth slowed in March
* Federal subsidies for semi firms to fuel industry growth, report projects…
* Semiconductor ETF (SMH) trades near record high:
Communications, Energy Are 2024’s Sector Leaders For US Stocks
The upside momentum in the US stock market so far this year continues to be led by rallies in communications services and energy shares, based on a set of ETFs through Monday’s close (May 6). Both sectors are outperforming the broad market and their counterparts.
Macro Briefing: 7 May 2024
* Global economic growth at 10-month high in April: PMI survey
* America’s fiscal outlook is troubling, but largely ignored on campaign trail
* Sahm Indicator rises for 3rd month in April, closer to recession tipping point
* Renters’ expectations of owning home fall to record low: NY Fed survey
* US 10yr Treasury yield falls for 5th straight dat to lowest level since Dec:
Was April’s Correction Noise Or Signal For Global Markets?
April was a rough month for investors, but the rebound in asset prices in the early days of May has revived expectations that the worst has passed. A key catalyst for the turnaround in sentiment: Friday’s US payrolls data, which posted a substantially softer-than-expected rise in April. The crowd views the news as a net positive because it lifts the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
Macro Briefing: 6 May 2024
* Hard-landing risk for US economy is rising again, predicts Citi economist
* Eurozone business activity expands at fastest pace in almost a year
* China is a key factor in gold’s rally
* AI could fuel a spike in demand for natural gas, advises Wells Fargo
* US economy appears to be cooling as hiring slows more than expected in April:
