* N. Korea fires ICBM into sea near Japan in ‘brazen violation’ of UN resolutions
* UK finance minister warns of hard times ahead for Britain’s economy
* Rate hikes have had ‘limited effect’ on US inflation, says St. Louis Fed president
* US mortgage rates fell sharply last week
* Philly Fed Mfg Index slides in November, dropping to lowest level since May 2020
* New filings for US jobless benefits remain low for week ending Nov. 12
* US housing starts fall sharply in October:
Fed Pivot Watch: 17 November 2022
Speculation that the Federal Reserve is close to pausing its rate hikes took a hit this week after a Fed official downplayed the odds in a TV interview on Wednesday.
Macro Briefing: 17 November 2022
* Republicans win control of House
* NATO says “no indication” that missile strike in Poland came from Russia
* US homebuilder sentiment slide for 11th straighth month in November
* US import prices fall for fourth straight month in October
* Atlanta Fed’s business inflation expectations steady at 3.3% in November
* US industrial production declines in October, first monthly slide since August
* US retail sales rebound sharply in October, rising more than expected:
US Economic Growth Expected To Continue In Q4
The recovery in US economic activity in the third quarter appears set to continue in Q4, based on the median for a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Although the numbers point to a slowdown in growth, the current Q4 nowcast highlights the possibility that output will post back-to-back quarterly increases for the first time this year.
Macro Briefing: 16 November 2022
* NATO convenes emergency meeting after missile hits Poland
* Biden says missile that hit Poland ‘unlikely’ fired from Russia
* Russia denies blame for missile that strikes Poland
* Group of 20 leading economies condemn Russia for Ukraine war
* UK inflation rises to 41-year high in October: +11.1%
* US household debt surges at fastest pace 15 years fueled by credit card use
* US wholesale inflation rose less than expected in October
* NY Fed Manufacturing Index rebounds in November but outlook weakens:
Torturing The Data: Mid-Term Elections Implications
It’s been tempting in recent weeks to look at the stock market’s performance following US mid-term elections as biased upward for reasons linked to a special factor that prevails after voting. This is probably narrative mining than robust quantitative analysis.
Macro Briefing: 15 November 2022
* Republicans now within 1 seat of retaking House after voting updates
* Fed’s Brainard says rate hikes likely to slow at next meeting
* China retail sales and industrial output post weaker-than-expected results
* Amazon reportedly plans to announce mass layoffs
* Global population reaches 8 billion
* Americans expecting higher inflation for year ahead via NY Fed October survey
* Japan’s economy unexpectedly contracts in Q3
* Economists lift inflation outlook through 2023, according to new survey:
Real Estate ex-US Led Ongoing Rebound In Markets Last Week
The major asset classes continued to recover in the trading week through Friday, Nov. 11, based on a set of ETF proxies. The lone exception: a broad measure of commodities.
Macro Briefing: 14 November 2022
* Dems hold the Senate as House control remains unclear
* Democrats say they’ll address US debt ceiling limit in coming weeks
* Fed’s Waller: “We’ve still got a ways to go” before pausing rate hikes, he says
* Biden meets President Xi and aim to ‘manage out differences’
* FTX collapse prompts rethink for crypto’s role in asset allocation
* Is de-growth the best way to address climate change?
* Pandemic housing bubble is bursting, says chief economist at KPMG.
* Small farmers priced out of market as farmland values reach record highs
* Eurozone industrial production is surprisingly strong in October
* US Dollar Index fell to 3-month low on Friday:
Book Bits: 12 November 2022
● For Profit: A History of Corporations
William Magnuson
Review via The Economist
There is no mention of Elon Musk in William Magnuson’s magnificent history of corporations, which stretches from the societas publicanorum of ancient Rome, through Renaissance Florence, the Age of Discovery and the might of American industrial capitalism to Silicon Valley. Yet reading it makes clear why the pioneer of electric cars, private rockets—and now, via Twitter, controller of part of the public sphere—commands attention. For more than 2,000 years, corporations such as his have produced some of humankind’s greatest achievements. But usually the most dazzling overstep the mark, leaving a trail of debris and distrust behind them.