* A glimmer of hope emerges that Ukraine grain exports can resume
* Fund funds futures estimate high probability for 100-basis-point rate hike
* Fed Beige Book highlights concerns about price increases
* Major US crypto lender Celsius Network files for bankruptcy
* Atlanta Fed business inflation expectations survey is stable at +3.7% for July
* Rents in US rise at fastest pace since 1986
* US headline consumer inflation continues to accelerate for annual rate:
Favoring American shares has long been a winning strategy, but nothing lasts forever. Timing, of course, is the great mystery.
* Biden heads to Saudi Arabia with high-stakes agenda
* Russia and Ukraine set to negotiate restart of Ukrainian grain exports
* Global oil-supply crisis appears to be easing
* Quarter of Americans say they’ll purchase an electric vehicle
* Rising housing prices expected to keep upward pressure on inflation this year
* Eurozone industrial output posts solid gain in May
* S. Korea raises interest rates by 50 basis points to fight inflation
* US 2yr/10yr Treasury yield curve stays inverted, signaling elevated recession risk:
Recession risk is rising, which inevitably leads to a discussion and debate about what exactly defines such an event. There’s no single definitive rule, at least nothing that can be easily summarized that’s also widely accepted by economists. But there are many theories. Ergo, it’s easy to become confused as you slip down this rabbit hole.
* Worst is yet to come for global energy crisis, predicts IEA
* Strong US dollar expected to take a toll on corporate earnings
* Dividend payouts on track for another record in the second quarter
* US small business sentiment slips to 48-year low in June
* Do abortion bans in certain US states have an economic cost?
* Collapse of large crypto hedge fund highlights counterpart risk alert
* Americans cancel home-purchase deals at highest rate since start of pandemic
* US Dollar Index rises to new 20-year high:
American shares continue to trade in a tight range, posting a modest gain last week. But for most global markets, the trading week through Friday, July 8, delivered losses, based on a set of ETFs.
* Ukraine hit with expanded shelling from Russia
* Russia temporarily halts gas flows to Europe via major pipeline
* Biden’s visit to Middle East this week confronts challenges
* New coronavirus mutant raises concerns among scientists
* Texas at risk of rolling blackouts during heatwave
* Analysts consider how UK economy will change with Johnson’s successor
* China violently dispersed peaceful protest by hundreds of depositors
* Strong US jobs market is good for economy, but small firms are struggling
* US payrolls continue to increase at solid pace in June:
Brett Scott
Reference via New York Magazine
There is an undeniable measure of convenience to digital payment. At its best: beep, buzz, go. Convenience, however, rarely comes without a cost, and here there are a few. In his book, Cloudmoney: Cash, Cards, Crypto, and the War for Our Wallets, journalist and former derivatives broker Brett Scott sets out to convince the reader that we all have something at stake in the war on cash. Scott’s target is the campaign to computerize all transactions and the corresponding vision of a predestined historical arc from cha-ching to beep-boop, as promoted by anti-cash interests. What he shows is that a cashless society would be so fast it’s guaranteed to leave some people behind.
Investing in Deflation, Inflation, and Stagflation Regimes
Guido Baltussen (Erasmus University Rotterdam), et al.
July 2022
We examine asset class and factor premiums across inflationary regimes. As periods of high inflation and deflation are relatively uncommon in recent history, we use a deep sample starting in 1875. Moderate inflation scenarios provide the highest returns across asset class and factor premiums. During deflationary periods, nominal returns are low, but real returns are attractive. By contrast, real equity and bond returns are negative during a high inflation regime, and especially so during times of stagflation. During these ‘bad times’ factor premiums are positive, which helps to offset part of the real capital losses.
* Former Japan Prime Minister Abe assassinated during during speech
* Johnson steps down at a vulnerable moment for the UK economy
* Putin warns Russia’s war on Ukraine has only just started
* US trade deficit narrowed for a second month in May
* Mortgage rates drop for a second week, posting largest decline since 2008
* US jobless claims remain low and stable, implying strong labor market:
