* OECD cuts global growth estimate for 2022: +2.9% vs. January’s +4.1% forecast
* Inflation will remain high, Treasury Sec. Yellen tells Senators
* Progressive politics takes a hit in California’s Democratic primaries
* Tech’s decade of dominating the stock market appears to be over
* Eurozone economic growth revised up for Q1: +0.6% vs. +0.3% previously
* Japan Q1 GDP revised up to +0.5% from 1% loss in previous estimate
* Global supply chain pressures ease in May, reversing April’s jump:

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* Johnson survives vote of confidence and remains UK prime minister
* Taiwan prepares for a possible invasion from China
* Treasury Sec. Yellen faces tough questions on inflation in Congress this week
* Global growth remains weak but was slightly stronger in May
* China services-sector business activity “continues to fall markedly in May”
* Rising interest rates are taking a toll on commercial properety sales
* World has passed ‘peak agricultural land’
* Germany manufacutring orders fall for third month in April
* US 10yr Treasury yield rebounds, rising above 3% again:

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Update: Miracle of miracles — my flight from Honolulu to Newark (with a connection in San Francisco) arrived early in Newark, a.k.a. hitting the airline lottery jackpot. In short, back to business a bit earlier than expected.

No updates today as the Capital Spectator is somewhere over these United States, returning from a week-plus of Waikiki, heading back to the Gah-den State, a.k.a. NJ. Debriefing to resume a Northeast lifestyle already in progress. The usual routine resumes tomorrow, Wed., June 8. Meantime, a last look at what I’m leaving behind in exchange for a non-descript location roughly 30 miles southwest of Wall Street.

* Russia strikes Kyiv with missiles as Putin warns West on arms
* US and S. Korea launch missiles in response to N. Korea missile launches
* US can avoid a recession if the Fed’s policy choices are timely and effective
* Cleveland Fed president says series of aggressive rate hikes needed
* US services sector growth eases to slowest pace in over a year in May
* Solid gain in US payrolls in May keeps Fed on track for 50-basis-point rate hikes
* US payrolls growth remains strong in May, rising 390,000:

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● Direct: The Rise of the Middleman Economy and the Power of Going to the Source
Kathryn Judge
Review via The Economist
In 2011 there was an outbreak of E. coli in Germany. Thousands of people fell ill. The authorities suspected that salad ingredients were to blame, but did not know which ones were contaminated with the bacteria. Their initial guess was Spanish cucumbers—and so European consumers avoided that country’s fresh produce. Only later did the authorities find that salad sprouts grown in Germany were to blame.
The reason for the confusion, argues Kathryn Judge, a professor at Columbia Law School, was the complex supply chains that have developed in the global economy. It is not easy for regulators, let alone consumers, to know where goods come from. She draws a parallel with the subprime-mortgage crisis of 2007: loans had been repackaged so many times that investors were far from sure which financial products, and which banks, were safe. So they avoided them all, thereby exacerbating the panic.

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* Fed begins shrinking its $8.9 trillion balance sheet to combat inflation
* OPEC agrees to boost oil output as Russian production drops
* China to launch aircraft carrier that will project military power globally
* US factory orders and shipments post modest gains for April
* Jobless claims eased last week, holding near multi-decade low
* ADP estimates hiring by US firms in May was the slowest gain of the recovery:

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* US job openings remain high in April as companies struggle to find workers
* Saudi Arabia says it will pump more oil if Russia’s output falls sharply
* Biden reportedly will visit Saudi Arabia as oil prices stay high
* Mortgage rates in US up sharply after easing in recent weeks
* Fed Beige Book reports ‘slight or modest’ economic growth recently
* Global manufacturing output falls for second month in May via PMI data
* Construction spending in US rises less than expected in April
* US ISM Mfg Index rose in May, signaling that moderate growth continues:

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* US to provide Ukraine advanced rocket systems that may escalate the war
* China sends 30 warplanes near Taiwan during large training drill
* China eases Covid lockdown on Shanghai, the country’s economic and trade hub
* China mfg activity contraction eases in May, Caixin PMI shows
* Eurozone inflation rises to annual 8.1% pace in May, a new record high
* Chicago PMI rises in May, beating expectations
* Treasury Sec. Yellen concedes she was “wrong” about inflation expectations
* Is the US providing the Ukraine war with momentum that’s “impossible to stop”?
* High inflation and rising interest rates cool consumer confidence in May:

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* EU leaders agree on partial ban on Russian oil imports
* China mfg sentiment improves in May but is still contracting
* Eurozone economic sentiment stabilizes in May
* Biden says he’ll back Fed to reduce inflation through lower demand
* US Consumer Sentiment Index revised down for May:

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The Capital Spectator is marking the unofficial start of the summer by taking some time off with an excursion to Hawaii. Temporarily refocusing on the local flora and fauna, among other activities, will keep your editor away from the computer for extended stretches. Updates, as a result, will be light, at times non-existent. The usual routine returns on Wednesday, June 8. Aloha!