Nomi Prins
Review via Jacobin.com
During the pandemic, Prins explains, “too big to fail” became “too big to correct.” As economies ground to a halt around the globe, central banks printed trillions more to keep markets afloat. The result has been perhaps the single greatest transfer of wealth in human history. Between the fourth quarters of 2019 and 2020, she writes, the planet’s more than two thousand billionaires saw their net worth increase by $1.9 trillion — a figure that has only increased in the years since. In December of 2020, when the United States averaged approximately 2,500 COVID deaths per day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared to a then record 30,606.48. Meanwhile, poverty rose from 9.3 percent in June of that year to 11.7 percent in November, with eight million more people falling below the poverty line. The latest Congressional Budget Office report indicates that the poorest half of the country now holds just 2 percent of its wealth.
Peak Inflation Watch: 14 October 2022
If we’re generous, the case for arguing that inflation has peaked is mixed. Depending on the indicator of choice, there’s supporting evidence for deciding that worst of the inflation surge is behind us. But there’s also data to assert the opposite, as yesterday’s update on consumer prices reminds.
Macro Briefing: 14 October 2022
* Russia expected to hold large-scale exercises of nuclear forces soon
* US inflation data suggests Fed will hike rates again by 0.75-Point
* US social security recipients will receive 8.7% increase in payouts–a 40-year high
* China inflation increases at highest pace in two years in September
* European Central Bank needs more rate hikes, says Belgium’s central bank chief
* UK pension fund sales is warning for global bond markets
* Japanese yen trades at 32-year low against US dollar
* US jobless claims rose again last week but remain historically low
* US core consumer inflation rose in September, reaching 40-year high:
Stocks In Latin America Are Outperforming This Year
It’s been a tough year for the stocks, in the US and around the world – with a glaring exception: shares in Latin America.
Macro Briefing: 13 October 2022
* Russia continues widespread attacks on Ukraine with drones
* Fed officials expect higher interest rates to persist, according to Fed minutes
* OPEC+ oil supply cuts may be “tipping point for a global economy,” IEA warns
* Capital spending cuts by world’s leading chip firm are warning for tech sector
* Chip firm Intel planning major layoffs, a warning for the PC market
* Wholesale prices in the US rose more than forecast in September
* Business inflation outlook steady at 3.3% in October via Atlanta Fed survey
* US Treasury real (inflation-adjusted) yields remain close to 12-year highs:
US Economy Still Appears On Track For Rebound In Q3 GDP Data
The US economic outlook remains dicey as various macro and geopolitical risk factors continue to swirl, but a rebound is still intact for the current nowcast of the upcoming third-quarter GDP report, based on the median for a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 12 October 2022
* IMF issues warning on global economic outlook
* Weak economic outlook implies lower inflation, analysts advise
* Strong dollar is ‘logical outcome’ of policy decisions, says Treasury Sec. Yellen
* UK economy contracts in August, a downside surprise to forecasters
* Long-term inflation outlook suggests relatively mild pricing pressure
* US small business sentiment rises modestly for third month in September:
Mr. Market’s Macro Outlook: 11 October 2022
Mr. Market always has a view. Many, in fact. They’re not always right, but they keep coming. That includes views on the macro outlook. While there are no formal forecasts, there are implied estimates of various big-picture trends. One way to read the tea leaves: calculating the ebb and flow with various pairs of proxy ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 11 October 2022
* Russia launches second day of missile strikes on Ukraine
* Putin warns of more attacks after deadly Russian strikes across Ukraine
* Goldman Sachs says it’s “too early” to price in a dovish Fed pivot
* Fed’s Charles Evans reaffirms fighting inflation as top policy task
* Fed Vice Chair says rate hikes will slow economy over time
* Bank of England intervenes in bond markets again, sees financial-instability risk
* US stock market looks poised to retest recent lows:
A Partial Recovery For Global Markets Last Week
Global markets posted a mixed run in last week’s trading, but the general trend continues to skew negative, based on a set of proxy ETFs through Friday’s close (Oct. 7).