Macro Briefing: 8 September 2021

* Rising US wages raise concerns about inflation pressure
* Fed official continues to push for quick ‘taper’ despite weak US jobs growth
* UK set to raise taxes to 70-year high to pay for Covid deficits
* Does rise of digital currencies facilitate deeply negative interest rates?
* Afghanistan announces hardliners for key posts in new Taliban government
* Soaring price of natural gas is a threat to Eurozone economy and beyond
* Is surging global inflation in economies worldwide a sign that it’s temporary?
* SEC may sue Coinbase over its crypto lending plan
* US 10-year Treasury yield rises to 8-week high:

US Bond Market Delivers Mixed Results So Far In 2021

Uncertainty remains elevated for the economy, inflation, monetary policy and the path of the pandemic as the final quarter of 2021 approaches. As investors struggle to get a handle on how the final run of 2021 plays out, the US bond market has delivered a mixed performance year to date, based on a set of ETFs through Sep. 3.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 7 September 2021

* Extended US jobless benefits end this week for millions still out of work
* Goldman Sachs economists cut US growth outlook
* President Xi calls for stronger push to redistribute wealth in China
* China’s tech crackdown will weigh on country’s economy, says former WTO chief
* China’s exports rose at faster pace in August
* El Salvador becomes first country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender
* Men trail female college students by record levels
* Weighing the odds that global growth has peaked
* US stocks remain elevated as economic surprise index turns deeply negative:

Book Bits: 4 Saturday 2021

Shutdown: How Covid Shook the World’s Economy
Adam Tooze
Review via Reuters
Confronting the crisis forced governments to discard old orthodoxies, many of which were already under attack. Politicians who had previously sought to rein in public spending deployed vast sums to support citizens stuck at home and businesses which had been forced to close. Central banks hoovered up government bonds and backstopped a range of financial markets. Commitments to free trade and private enterprise were discarded in the rush to secure face masks and vaccines, and support crisis-struck industries.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 3 September 2021

* Millions of jobless Americans are about to lose federal unemployment benefits
* Japan’s prime minister announces he’ll quit after a year in office
* Looking for clues for predicting how the Taliban will govern Afghanistan
* China Services PMI: sector contracted in August for first time since April 2020
* US jobless claims remained strong in August
* GM to halt most production at North American plants due to chip shortage
* One of biggest hedge funds agrees to pay up to $7 billion to settle tax dispute
* US rent inflation will accelerate, predict two Fed economists predict:

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 September 2021

The expected risk premium for the Global Market (GMI) ticked up in August, reaching an annualized 6.1%, slightly above the previous month’s estimate. That’s a relatively elevated level compared with recent history. The forecast relates to the long-run outlook for GMI’s return over the “risk-free” rate, which is based on the yield for a 3-month Treasury bill.

Continue reading