US consumer inflation ticked up to a 3.0% year-over-year rate in September, the highest rate since January. Core CPI held steady at 3.0%. “The immediate dangers from Trump 2.0 tariff policies have not yet fed through to inflation overall,” wrote Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds. “The market will likely hold their applause, however, as one reason inflation is held in check may be due to the economic slowdown seen in many labor market indicators.” Eric Gerster, chief investment officer at AlphaCore Wealth Advisory, said the CPI report “certainly clears the way for the Fed to cut rates next week as they were going to anyway. It certainly leads to a higher expectation of at least two more rate cuts by March.”

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● Fixed: Why Personal Finance Is Broken and How to Make It Work for Everyone
John Y. Campbell and Tarun Ramadorai
Summary via publisher (Princeton U. Press)
We interact with the financial system every day, whether taking out or paying off loans, making insurance claims, or simply depositing money into our bank accounts. Fixed exposes how this system has been corrupted to serve the interests of financial services providers and their cleverest customers—at the expense of ordinary people. John Campbell and Tarun Ramadorai diagnose the ills of today’s personal finance markets in the United States and across the globe, looking at everything from short-term saving and borrowing to loans for education and housing, financial products for retirement, and insurance. They show how the system is “fixed” to benefit those who are wealthy and more educated while encouraging financial mistakes by those who are aren’t, making it difficult for regular consumers to make sound financial decisions and disadvantaging them in some of the most consequential economic transactions of their lives.

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The case for low-risk equity investing: evidence from 2011-2025
Raul Leote de Carvalho (BNP Paribas), et al.
July 2025
This paper investigates the performance of equity low-risk strategies since 2011, highlighting their ability to deliver strong risk-adjusted returns across diverse market conditions. We introduce a composite risk score that extends beyond volatility and demonstrate its effectiveness through empirical analysis. The study compares portfolio constructions, examines sector-level effects, and evaluates exposures to Fama-French factors. Results confirm the persistence of the low-risk anomaly and the presence of alpha unexplained by traditional risk premia, supporting the case for including low-risk strategies in long-term equity portfolios.

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Existing-home sales increased by 1.5% month-over-month in September, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. “As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.” Mortgage rates have fallen to the lowest level in a year, below 6.2%.

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The third-quarter GDP report, scheduled for release on Oct. 30, will almost certainly be delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown. Meanwhile, the latest nowcasts still point to a moderate pace of economic activity, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. But with each day that key government economic reports are postponed, the reliability of Q3 GDP nowcasting becomes more uncertain.

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Business inflation expectations were steady in October, reports the Atlanta Fed. Year-ahead inflation expectations at firms surveyed by the regional Fed bank remained relatively unchanged at 2.3%, on average.

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Judging by the Treasury market, the delayed September update on consumer inflation due on Friday will keep the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates again next week.

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The US 10-year Treasury yield is testing its lowest level since the tariff tantrum in April. The benchmark rate closed down on Tuesday, settling at 3.97%.

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Despite worrisome headlines, high valuations in some markets, and elevated policy uncertainty, the appetite for risk remains strong, according to a set of ETFs through Monday’s close (Oct. 20).

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The US and Australia signed a deal on critical minerals for projects worth up to $8.5 billion. The deal is expected to help the US reduce its dependence on China, which dominates the global rare earth supply chain. An ETF that targets these commodities is trading near a 1-1/2 year high:

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