In this issue:
- US REITs surged in a mixed week for global markets
- Portfolio strategy benchmarks rebounded this week
Estimating Oversold/Overbought Market Conditions
Would you know an oversold or overbought market if you saw one? Wall Street is obsessed with the question. And so is every trader, and perhaps more than a few investors who otherwise think they have a long-term horizon.
Macro Briefing: 26 March 2021
* Biden warns of ‘responses’ if N. Korea’s missile tests continue
* Fed’s Powell: economy recovering faster than expected
* Two prominent economists worry about inflation. The Fed disagrees
* China announces sanctions on UK re: charges of human rights abuses in Xinjiang
* Suez Canal may be blocked for weeks, disrupting global trade
* US consumer spending expected to fall in today’s report for February
* CBO overestimated rise in yields in past years. Is it right this time?
* US Q4 GDP growth revised slightly higher to 4.3%
* US jobless claims last week fell to lowest since pandemic’s start:
Widespread Losses For Bonds This Year, With Some Exceptions
Holding bonds has been a mostly painful experience so far in 2021, although a few corners of fixed-income have escaped the damage, based on a set of proxy ETFs through yesterday’s close (Mar. 24).
Macro Briefing: 25 March 2021
* North Korea launched missiles–second test in less than a week
* AstraZeneca reports lower efficacy rate for vaccine in updated data
* Signs to monitor to determine if the US economy is at risk of overheating
* Ship still blocking Suez Canal for third day
* Supply chain disruptions expected to worsen shortages and raise prices
* End-of-quarter rebalancing activities in focus after sharp fall in bonds
* Is BlackRock too big to fail? Treasury Secretary Yellen responds
* Fidelity Investments preparing to launch bitcoin ETF
* Cold weather reportedly takes a bite out of US durable goods orders in February
* US economic growth remains solid in March via PMI survey data:
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 24 March 2021
In this issue:
- Is the rebound in emerging markets stocks fading?
- Global stocks ex-US looked ready to outperform the US, but that looks unlikely… again
- Palladium’s bull market is one of the strongest of any asset
Can Energy Stocks Continue To Lead US Sector Returns In 2021?
Shares in the energy patch continue post the strongest year-to-date performance for US equity sectors, based on a set of exchange traded funds through yesterday’s close (Mar. 23). The dramatic bounce from last year’s low has left the rest of the sector field in the dust in 2021. But some of the laggards are showing relative strength in recent weeks, suggesting that a leadership rotation may be brewing.
Macro Briefing: 24 March 2021
* White House to talk with Mexico, Guatemala after migrant surge at border
* N. Korea’s missile launch ‘not provocation,’ says Biden
* EU drafts law to severely cut vaccine exports for six months
* Will stimulus package fuel inflation? Modestly, at most, predicts Fed’s Powell
* Bookings for summer travel season are heating up
* Eurozone economy expands in March — first growth in 6 months via PMI data
* UK economy rebounds, posting strongest growth in 7 months via PMI data
* Richmond Fed Mfg Index posts stronger growth in March
* New US home sales fell to a 9-month low in February:
Core Inflation Is Probably A Better Measure Of The Trend
Inflation is topical again. The crowd is becoming increasingly concerned that a combination of factors, including ramped-up fiscal spending and ongoing monetary stimulus, will conspire to unleash firmer pricing pressure. By some accounts, inflation is set to spiral higher and threaten the price stability that’s prevailed for several decades.
Macro Briefing: 23 March 2021
* Gunman kills 10 in a mass shooting at a grocery store in Colorado
* US officials raise new questions over AstraZeneca vaccine trial results
* White House working on $3 trillion infrastructure proposal
* Will rising EU-China tensions derail new investment deal?
* Lessons from 2010-2011 inflation scare are relevant again
* UK jobless rate unexpectedly fell over three months through January
* Federal Reserve won’t issue a digital currency without congressional approval
* Existing home sales down sharply in Feb due to drop in supply
* US economy contracted in Feb via Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index:
