Amid flat-to-negative performances for most of the major asset classes, last week’s strong rally in real estate stocks ex-US stands out. This corner of global markets led by a wide margin, based on a set of ETFs through the close of the trading week on Friday, Mar. 19.

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* AstraZeneca vaccine: 79% effective in US study, no higher risk of blood clots
* Homeland Security Secretary says US’ border with Mexico is ‘closed’
* Will US suffer another Covid-19 surge? Unclear, say experts
* Canadian Pacific Railway on Sunday to buy Kansas City Southern for $25 billion
* A Fed with no fear of inflation is a risk factor
* US economy on ‘brink’ of complete recovery, says Richmond Fed’s Barkin
* US stimulus package will boost global economy too, analysts predict
* Turkey’s currency crashes after President fires country’s central bank governor
* 10yr/3mo US Treasury yield curve at 1.73 percentage points, a four-year high:

Last week’s downside bias in global markets pinched our two proprietary strategies, which fell in line with their strategy benchmarks. Both active strategies, which follow a set of quantitative rules, are still posting year-to-date gains, but their performances trail the benchmark.

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● Genius Makers: The Mavericks Who Brought AI to Google, Facebook, and the World
Cade Metz
Q&A with author via The News & Observer
With his new book, “Genius Makers: The Mavericks Who Brought AI to Google, Facebook, and the World,” Metz is sharing the stories of the individuals whose breakthroughs in the past decades have pushed forward the limits of artificial intelligence.
As a reporter for Wired Magazine and now the Times, Metz has had a front row seat to the incredible strides made in deep learning, a process in which a computer learns from absorbing large amounts of data. That has helped computer programs make huge leaps in things like facial recognition and self-driving cars, and fueled intense competition between companies, like Google, Microsoft, Facebook and multiple Chinese firms.

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In this issue:

• Asia stocks, led by Japan, rallied this week
• Portfolio strategy benchmarks retreated for the trading week

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Predictable Financial Crises
Robin Greenwood (Harvard University), et al.
March 2021
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is associated with about a 40% probability of entering a financial crisis within the next three years. This compares with a roughly 7% probability in normal times, when neither credit nor asset price growth has been elevated. Our evidence cuts against the view that financial crises are unpredictable “bolts from the sky” and points toward the Kindleberger-Minsky view that crises are the byproduct of predictable, boom-bust credit cycles. The predictability we document favors macro-financial policies that “lean against the wind” of credit market booms.

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* Tensions high at first official US-China meeting
* Russia reacts angrily to Biden’s remark that Putin is ‘a killer’
* Economists raise economic forecasts for US as Americans increase spending
* Fed worries that a booming US economy won’t last
* US bond market yields rise a day after Fed meeting
* Higher 10-year Treasury yield a sign of rising economic confidence, says analyst
* US Leading Economic Index continued rising in February
* Philly Fed Mfg Index jumps to 50-year high in March
* US jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week:

The US economy remains on track to report an unusually strong increase in output for next month’s first-quarter report on gross domestic product (GDP), based on a set of nowcasts. The projected gain has softened recently, but the current estimate still reflects a hefty gain.

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* Federal Reserve sees stronger growth, higher inflation in 2021 but no rate hikes
* US 10-year Treasury yield above 1.7% on Thursday, highest in over a year
* Higher inflation outlook threatens to reverse recent dollar gains
* Fast, uneven rebound in consumer demand expected, McKinsey & Co predicts
* Russia recalls its US ambassador after critical US intelligence report
* Climate overhaul of flood insurance program delayed by Senate leader
* China has muted expectations for today’s meeting with US officials
* China’s exports surged in late-2020
* World gasoline demand has probably peaked, says International Energy Agency
* US housing starts fell by more than forecast in February:

In this issue:

• Treasuries continue to bleed
• Housing construction slowed in February, but housing stocks didn’t notice
• Is the gold selloff ending?

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