The holy grail of portfolio design is combining assets so that returns are relatively stable if not higher, risk is generally lower and the overall mix delivers stronger risk-adjusted performance that’s not otherwise available through owning the components separately. Diversification, as the saying goes, is the only free lunch in investing.
Macro Briefing: 8 October 2020
Regeneron asks for emergency approval for Covid-19 Therapy: BBG
US jobless claims expected to remain high in today’s update: WSJ
Hurricane Delta threatens threatens US Gulf Coast: CNN
Faltering stimulus talks in Washington threaten economy: CNBC
Investors eye healthcare sector as Biden lead in polls grows: Reuters
Low bond yields create challenges for baby boomers looking for safety: NYT
Fed minutes: officials worried about lack of fiscal support for economy: CNBC
US consumer borrowing fell in Aug as credit-card balances continue to slide: BBG
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 7 October 2020
Resilience Revived? Election/political risk in various forms has been squeezing the US equity market in recent weeks, but the correction appears, once again, to be a temporary diversion.
US Q3 GDP Expected To Rise Sharply As Q4 Outlook Dims
The US economy is still on track to post a strong rebound in the upcoming third-quarter GDP report, but Q4’s prospects appear to be fading, according to recent nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com and analysis by economists.
Macro Briefing: 7 October 2020
Trump ends stimulus talks between GOP and Dems until after election: WSJ
After rejecting stimulus talks, Trump appears to reverse course: CNBC
End of pre-election stimulus talks threatens more economic pain for US: BBG
Fed’s Powell recommends more stimulus to aid economic recovery: CNBC
Covid-19 continues to spread among Trump’s inner circle: BBC
US lawmakers focus on reforms for Big Tech: Reuters
Iran warns that fighting in Caucus could trigger regional war: Reuters
Another former Soviet republic (Kyrgyzstan) succumbs to political chaos: BBC
German industrial output slipped in Aug after 3 monthly gains: MW
Venezuela, once a major oil producer, grinds to a halt for crude output: NYT
US traded deficit at 14-year high in August: AP
US job openings retreat for the first time in four months in Aug: BBG
Latest Rise In 10-Year Yield Stirs Reflation Forecasts… Again
It doesn’t take much to set reflation expectations on fire these days. With US interest rates near zero (or negative in some parts of the world), a mild uptick in yields inspires a new round of forecasts that a sustained run of higher inflation has finally started.
Macro Briefing: 6 October 2020
Trump returns to White House with cautious prognosis: WSJ
CDC’s new coronavirus guidance: it can spread on airborne particles: CNBC
US Sec. of State, meeting with Asian allies, criticizes China’s ‘malign activity’: IBT
Two-track recovery unfolding as US economy struggles with coronavirus: WSJ
House antitrust report suggests breaking up Big Tech: Reuters
Global economic recovery slowed in Sep but remains “solid”: IHSM
German factory orders continued to recover in August: MW
PMI survey: US economy continued to rebound in September: IHSM
US services sector expands for fourth month in a row in Sep: MW
Most Asset Classes Rebounded Last Week While Commodities Fell
Global markets recovered lost ground last week, although a measure of broadly defined commodities continued to fall, based on a set of exchange traded funds through Oct. 2.
Macro Briefing: 5 October 2020
Trump may leave hospital today: WSJ
Trump still in ‘dangerous position’ even though he looks well, says doctor: CNBC
Nine US states report record increases in coronavirus infections: Reuters
Considering the line of presidential succession: Politico
Risk of permanent job losses is rising for US economy: NYT
Invesco: China’s economic recovery from coronavirus will support region: CNBC
Eurozone growth slowed in Sep, edging closer to stagnation: IHSM
UK growth eased in Sep but remained ‘strong’: IHSM
US payrolls growth rose by lower than expected 661,000 in Sep: CNBC
Book Bits: 3 October 2020
Roger L. Martin
Summary via publisher (Harvard U. Press)
Growth in the economic prosperity of the average American family has slowed to a crawl, while the wealth of the richest Americans has skyrocketed. This imbalance threatens the American democratic capitalist system and our way of life. In this bracing yet constructive book, world-renowned business thinker Roger Martin starkly outlines the fundamental problem: We have treated the economy as a machine, pursuing ever-greater efficiency as an inherent good. But efficiency has become too much of a good thing.
