Trump set to sign trade deal with China on Wednesday: Bloomberg
Expectations are muted for new US-China trade deal: CNBC
Senate prepares for impeachment trial: CNN
Iran rejects prospects for a new ‘Trump deal’ on nuclear capability: Reuters
Eurozone industrial output rebounded in Dec but trend still negative: FT
Softer-than-expected UK inflation suggests BoE will cut rates: Bloomberg
US Small Business Optimism fell in Dec but remains ‘historically strong’: NFIB
US core consumer inflation (s.a.) ticked down to +2.2 annual pace in Dec:

Economic pessimism for the US has had a rough ride in recent years. The macro trend has wobbled several times since the last official recession ended in 2009, but each time the economy righted itself and the expansion rolled on. But new doubts emerged in the second half of 2019 and the long knives of dark predictions returned anew. For now, the pessimists have been proven wrong, again. In fact, there are hints that growth may be picking up a bit. Key data releases later this week will stress test the case for optimism. Here’s a quick review of what’s on the docket for economic reports in the days ahead.

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US Defense Sec: US has right to strike Iranian proxies in Iraq, Iran: NPR
US Treasury ends ‘currency manipulator’ label for China ahead of trade deal: BBC
GOP senators not likely to dismiss Trump charges ahead of trial: Reuters
US-Eurozone trade talks in focus next week: Bloomberg
US budget deficit topped $1 trillion in 2019–seven-year high: CNBC
India’s inflation spikes to five-year high due to food prices: Reuters
BlackRock: climate change at center of firm’s investment strategy: Fortune
Economic woes deepen in Iran as public’s tolerance wears thin: NY Times
US Dollar Index’s downside bias appears to be strengthening:

Another week, another gain for shares in emerging markets, which posted the strongest increase for the major asset classes over the trading week through January 10, based on a set of exchange traded funds.

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Iranian protests raise pressure on government: CNN
US-China trade war had limited impact on US economy in 2019: WSJ
Will China flex military muscles after Taiwan’s election? Reuters
Trump wants to restart talks with North Korea: Axios
UK GDP fell 0.3% in November, marking fourth month with no growth: CityAM
US employment growth slowed in Dec after strong gain in Nov: Reuters
US wage growth in Dec eased to 2.9% annual pace–slowest in over a year:

● Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty: Three Centuries of Economic Decision-Making
By George G. Szpiro
Summary via publisher (Columbia U. Press)
At its core, economics is about making decisions. In the history of economic thought, great intellectual prowess has been exerted toward devising exquisite theories of optimal decision making in situations of constraint, risk, and scarcity. Yet not all of our choices are purely logical, and so there is a longstanding tension between those emphasizing the rational and irrational sides of human behavior. One strand develops formal models of rational utility maximizing while the other draws on what behavioral science has shown about our tendency to act irrationally. In Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty, George G. Szpiro offers a new narrative of the three-century history of the study of decision making, tracing how crucial ideas have evolved and telling the stories of the thinkers who shaped the field.

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A softer gain in hiring was expected for December, but today’s report from the US Labor Department was weaker than economists forecast. Companies added 139,000 workers last month–moderately lower vs. the 150,000 consensus point forecast via Econoday.com. That’s still a respectable gain, although it’s no match for November’s blowout surge of 243,000 new jobs in the private sector.

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Ben Graham famously described Mr. Market’s psychological state from day to day as vulnerable to erratic swings of optimism and pessimism. But recent history shows that the crowd’s exhibited a mostly stable view on commodities and energy by consistently discounting these assets by relatively aggressive standards, based on a set of exchange-traded products. That was true in our last update (Aug. 22, 2019) and remains so today.

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Iran disputes that it accidentally shot down Ukrainian jetliner: Bloomberg
House passes resolution to curb Trump’s war powers: CNBC
Softer growth expected in today’s Dec employment report for US: Reuters
World Bank warns that risk of debt crisis is rising: Guardian
US jobless claims fell again last week, closing in on 50-year low: MW
Upbeat consumer confidence contrasts with gloomy CEO sentiment: CNBC

The benchmark rate on the 10-year Treasury has been trending higher since October, suggesting that the sharp slide that unfolded earlier in 2019 has run its course. But the economic outlook is still sufficiently murky to reserve judgment on whether the latest bounce in this key yield is a limited revival after an arguably excessive slide or the start of a sustained rise.

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