Announced US job cuts fell 37% in September vs the previous month, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm. Year to date, however, the number of announced cuts is the highest since 2020. “Right now, we’re dealing with a stagnating labor market, cost increases, and a transformative new technology. With rate cuts on the way, we may see some stabilizing in the job market in the fourth quarter, but other factors could keep employers planning layoffs or holding off hiring,” said Andy Challenger, senior vice president at the firm.

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The Global Market Index (GMI) is expected to earn a 7%-plus annualized total return in today’s update for the long-run outlook, based on data through September. The estimate is unchanged from the previous month’s analysis.

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US companies reduced payrolls for a second straight month in September, according to the ADP Employment Report. The data offers a n ew warning sign for the labor market outlook. “Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that US employers have been cautious with hiring,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson.

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All the major asset classes posted gains in September, extending a broad-based rally in recent history. The year-to-date results also reflect across-the-board wins, based on a set of proxy ETFs.

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The Federal government shut down for the first time since 2019. The odds still look low for a political compromise in Congress and so it’s unclear how long the shutdown will last. The Senate is expected to vote again today, likely on the same two measures that failed Tuesday. The betting market Kalshi is currently pricing in 79% odds that the shut down will last more than 5 day.

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Barring a last-minute deal between Democrats and Republicans today, the government is on track to shutdown at 12:01 am. If funding for the government ends, it would temporarily suspend some, but not all, US government operations until Congress agrees to a budget to reopen the affected services.

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US pending home sales rose to a 5-month high in August. “Lower mortgage rates are enabling more home buyers to go under contract,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at National Association of Realtors. “In the Midwest, low mortgage rates combined with high levels of affordability are attracting more buyers compared to other regions.”

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Pick an asset allocation. Any allocation. All the possibilities have been winning combinations so far in 2025. As a result, the most-striking aspect of global markets as the third quarter winds down: across-the-board gains continue to prevail for the major asset classes, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Sep. 26).

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US inflation continued to edge higher in August based on a price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The headline index was up 2.7% year-over-year, the highest level since April 2024. Core PCE prices, which exclude volatile prices for food and energy, rose 2.9% over the year, matching July’s trend.

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● Pay Up!: Conservative Myths About Tax Cuts for the Rich
John C. Campbell
Summary via publisher (Cambridge U. Press)
Since the Reagan era, conservatives in the United States have championed cutting taxes, especially for wealthy individuals and corporations, as the best way to achieve economic prosperity. In his new book, Pay Up!, John L. Campbell shows that while these claims are highly influential, they are also wrong. Using historical and cross-national evidence, the book challenges and refutes every justification conservatives have made for tax cuts – that American taxes are too high; they hurt the economy; they facilitate government waste; they constitute an unfair downward redistribution of income; and they threaten individual freedom – and conversely shows that countries can actually benefit from higher taxes, especially when tax increases fall most heavily on those most able to pay them.

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