Macro Briefing: 15 March 2019

Shootings at two New Zealand mosques claim 49 lives: BBC
N. Korea is considering lifting ban on missile and nuclear tests: Reuters
Israel launches military attack on Gaza after rockets fired at Tel Aviv: USA Today
Senate rebukes Trump by voting against border emergency declaration: Reuters
Economists cut US growth estimates sharply in new survey: WSJ
New home sales in US fell 6.9% in January: CNBC
US import prices increased 0.6% in Feb, but fell 1.3% over past 12 months: MW
US jobless claims rose to 1-month high last week: MW

Macro Briefing: 14 March 2019

US grounds Boeing 737 Max and new deliveries of plane are frozen: Reuters
Senate votes to end US military support for Saudi-led war in Yemen: USA Today
UK Parliament rejects a no-deal Brexit: CBS
Trump says he’s in ‘no rush’ to complete US-China trade deal: CNBC
Is the worst of the global economic slowdown over? Bloomberg
Growth rate in China’s industrial sector fell to 17-year low in early 2019: Reuters
US construction spending rose in Jan–biggest gain in 9 months: Reuters
US durable goods order rose in Jan, posting third monthly gain: MW

Low Inflation And Softer Economic Growth Will Keep Fed On Pause

The odds are virtually nil that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates through early 2020, according to Fed funds futures. Driving the market’s forecast: accumulating signs that the economy is slowing and inflation remains subdued. As long as this one-two punch remains is force, which seems likely based on recent data, the central bank’s recent run of policy tightening has likely ended and may even reverse course later in the year.
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Macro Briefing: 13 March 2019

UK rejects Brexit deal, leaving Britain in chaos ahead of EU departure: CNN
Boeing 737 MAX planes still fly in US as plane is grounded elsewhere: Reuters
China offers to assist Venezuela to end power blackout: Reuters
US small business optimism rose in Feb for first time in nearly 6mos: Axios
Consumer inflation ticks up in Feb–first increase in 4 months: CNBC
VIX Index, a measure of US stock mkt volatility, fell on Tues, near 5-month low:

Macro Briefing: 12 March 2019

US pulling remaining staff from its embassy in Venezuela: AP
White House budget proposal is released and is likely DOA: The Hill
US small-business owners less optimistic about business conditions: Gallup
UK’s prime minister secures new EU concessions ahead of Brexit vote: WSJ
UK economic growth rebounded in Jan after weak Dec: Reuters
Turkey slips into recession for first time in a decade: Bloomberg
US business inventories rose in Dec as sales dropped the most in 3 years: Reuters
US retail sales rebounded in Jan; Dec’s big loss is revised down even further: CNBC
US core CPI expected to more or less hold steady at 2.1% (s.a.) annual pace in Feb:

Macro Briefing: 11 March 2019

Boeing’s 737 Max jet may face global grounding after Ehtiopian crash: Bloomberg
Trump to ask Congress for $8.6 bill for border wall in budget proposal: Reuters
Iran’s president makes first visit to Iraq: ABC
German industrial output fell in Jan amid plunge in auto production: Reuters
UK government says Brexit talks deadlocked: Bloomberg
Fed Chairman Powell: the law says Trump can’t fire me: CNBC
US residential housing construction rose more than forecast in Jan: CNBC
Weak US jobs data for Feb suggests economic growth will slow in 2019: Bloomberg
Fed economic forecasts have overestimated US growth for a decade: NY Times

Book Bits | 9 March 2019

The Big Nine: How the Tech Titans and Their Thinking Machines Could Warp Humanity
By Amy Webb
Review via Marketplace.org
A future built on artificial intelligence is already here. It’s in the way Netflix chooses the next show for you to binge, how your Gmail account suggests simple email replies, in the technology that protects your credit card purchases. And if we continue to let AI develop the way we do now, says futurist Amy Webb, we’re probably not going to like where it takes us.
She says the future of AI is increasingly divided between the work done by six American companies — Google, IBM, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft and Apple — and three Chinese ones — Baidu, Tencent and Alibaba. But neither country has a technology policy that “puts humans at the center and puts the future of humanity at the forefront.”
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