Macro Briefing: 29 August 2018

Canada joins US-Mexico negotiations on trade: Reuters
Sanders-backed Gillum will face GOP in Florida’s race for governor: Politico
US considers restarting war games on Korean peninsula: Guardian
Russia to hold its biggest war games since WWII: CBS
China’s navy can now challenge the US in the Pacific: NY Times
Brazil to send army to border with Venezuela to “guarantee law and order”: BBC
US Consumer Confidence Index jumped in Aug to highest level since 2000: CNBC
US goods trade deficit widened sharply in July: Reuters
Home-price growth in US continued to slow in June: MarketWatch
US Dollar Index slipped to four-week low on Tuesday:

US Recession Risk Is Low, According To Current Q3 GDP Estimates

The flattening yield curve has sparked worries that a new recession is near, but the near-term outlook for growth still looks healthy, based on the latest set of nowcasts for third quarter GDP, as compiled by The Capital Spectator. The median estimate points to a solid 3.3% increase for Q3 output. Although that’s down from the 4.1% advance reported in in the “advance” Q2 report, the current projection suggests that the risk of economic contraction is low for the immediate future.
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Macro Briefing: 28 August 2018

Trump says he’s agreed on new trade deal with Mexico: Bloomberg
US-Mexico trade deal isn’t good news for US-China trade negotations: CNBC
World stocks at 6-mo high after US-Mexico trade deal announcement: Reuters
SF Fed research note: yield curve may be signaling rising recession risk: Reuters
US Consumer Confidence: another strong reading expected for Aug: Econoday
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index’s 3mo avg dips, but no recession on near horizon:

Macro Briefing: 27 August 2018

N. Korea criticizes US after Washington cancels trip to Pyongyang: Reuters
US trade war with China appears set to escalate: Bloomberg
Trade war will have bigger impact on debt vs. GDP in China: Bloomberg
Fed Chairman Powell stays focused on gradual rate hikes: CBS
US stocks via S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on Friday: MW
US 10yr-2yr yield spread fell to 19 basis points, another new 11-year low: FX Street
Superstar firms may explain slow wage growth, investment spending: NY Times
Germany has second thoughts about investments from China: SCMP
Headline US durable goods orders fell in July as business investment rose sharply:

Senator John McCain: 1936-2018

Sen. John McCain, a Vietnam War hero, Republican presidential contender, and influential voice in Congress, died yesterday, August 25. As Politico notes, “McCain’s life was like something out of a Hollywood movie script — he was a naval officer and a jet pilot, a war hero and politician. Yet he was ultimately denied the brass ring he most clearly wanted: becoming president of the United States.”
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Book Bits | 25 August 2018

Temp: How American Work, American Business, and the American Dream Became Temporary
By Louis Hyman
Q&A with author via Slate
In his new book Temp: How American Work, American Business, and the American Dream Became Temporary, Louis Hyman looks at the reasons behind the temporary nature of so much of the American economy. Eschewing the thesis that companies like Uber are primarily responsible for people working jobs without proper benefits and protections, Hyman examines the changes in American corporate life after the 1950s and 1960s, and why the much-mythologized postwar years were less rosy than we think. At the same time, he explains that the postwar era did offer protections for workers that have lately become much sparser and posits that the challenge going forward is to ensure that Americans keep the flexibility they now seem to want, while simultaneously not being exploited by the companies they work for.
Is this even possible? I recently spoke by phone with Hyman, who is an associate professor of history at the ILR School at Cornell University, to ask.
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Will The Narrowing Yield Curve Force The Fed To Rethink Policy?

The difference in the widely followed spread in 10- and 2-year Treasuries slipped to 21 basis points on Thursday (August 23), marking yet another 11-year low, based on daily data via Treasury.gov. The narrowing gap is stoking debate about whether a new recession is near and the wisdom of what’s expected to be another rate hike by the Federal Reserve next month. Based on current data, however, the economic data continues to reflect a healthy macro trend for the US. The question is whether various risks on the horizon, including a US trade war with China, will delay or even derail the central bank’s plans for higher rates?
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Macro Briefing: 24 August 2018

Arctic’s “last bastion” of sea ice is melting: USA Today
US-China trade war set to roll on despite latest talks: Bloomberg
China’s foreign minister: counter-strikes to US trade tariffs will continue: Reuters
Fed warns that escalating trade war is a threat to economy: CNN Money
New US home sales fell to 9-month low in July: CNBC
House prices in US rise at slowest pace in four years: HousingWire
Economists expect US durable goods orders for US will slump in July: Econoday
US jobless claims point to continue strength in labor market: Reuters
Eurozone Composite PMI ticks up to 2-month high in August: IHS Markit
PMI data shows that US private-sector growth slowed in August: IHS Markit

A Brief Intermission…

The Capital Spectator is slipping out of the office early today and taking a day off tomorrow. The game plan is to return to the usual grind on Friday, August 24. Cheers!