The S&P 500 briefly traded in record territory yesterday before closing just below an all-time peak. Small-cap stocks, however, had no trouble setting new highs.
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Macro Briefing: 22 August 2018
Cohen pleads guilty, implicating Trump: CNN
Former Trump campaign chairman Manafort convicted on fraud charges: The Hill
Legal blows raises impeachment risk for Trump: Politico
Pressure rising on Trump to take a tougher stand on Russia: CNBC
US-China trade talks set to continue today: Reuters
Economists expect further slowdown in China’s growth if trade war rolls on: SCMP
US existing home sales for July expected to edge lower in today’s release: MW
S&P 500 briefly trades at a record high before closing just below previous peak:
Deep-Value ETF Report: Slim Pickings After A Long Bull Run
It’s been nearly a decade since the nadir of the global financial crisis. Courtesy of a broad-based upswing for most of the years since, the big picture for picking up assets on the cheap is one of scarcity. In relative terms, bargains can be found, of course. Comparing stocks in emerging markets to US equities, for example, is a study in contrasts on a year-to-date basis, based on a set of exchange-traded funds: Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI), a US proxy, is up 8.3% so far in 2018 through August 20 vs. an 8.8% slide in Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets (VWO). But finding value in something approximating clear and ambiguous absolute terms beyond recent history is a tougher challenge.
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Macro Briefing: 21 August 2018
US business leaders warn that more China sanctions will be painful: NY Times
New Russian hacking efforts targeting Senate, conservative think tanks: CNN
Malaysian prime minister cancels China-backed infrastructure projects: Reuters
Fed’s plan for more rate hikes faces challenges from foreign risks: Reuters
Trump complains about Fed’s rate hikes at fund-raising event: Bloomberg
10yr-2yr Treasury yield spread falls to new post-recession low of 22 basis points:
US Real Estate Investment Trusts Surged Last Week
Securitized real estate securities in the US posted the strongest gain for the major asset classes last week, based on a set of exchange-traded products. During a week a mixed results for global markets overall, the strong advance in real estate investment trusts (REITs) is a conspicuous upside outlier.
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Macro Briefing: 20 August 2018
This week’s US-China trade talks face challenges: CNBC
White house rejects Turkey’s offer for releasing pastor: WSJ
US Sec. of State cites possible ceasefire in Afghanistan: Politico
Taiwan president’s US visit angers China: NY Times
China using Iranian tankers to sidestep US sanctions on Iran: Reuters
Eight years of bailouts for Greece officially end today: CNN
Trump administration says conserving oil is no longer economically crucial: PBS
US Leading Economic Index points to solid growth for rest of year: CB
Strong economic activity powered corporate results in Q2: CNBC
Politics shapes views on economy going into mid-term elections: NY Times
US consumer sentiment fell to 11-month low in August: MarketWatch
Book Bits | 18 August 2018
● Land of the Fee: Hidden Costs and the Decline of the American Middle Class
By Devin Fergus
Summary via publisher (Oxford University Press)
Politicians, economists, and the media have put forth no shortage of explanations for the mounting problem of wealth inequality – a loss of working class jobs, a rise in finance-driven speculative capitalism, and a surge of tax policy decisions that benefit the ultra-rich, among others. While these arguments focus on the macro problems that contribute to growing inequality, they overlook one innocuous but substantial contributor to the widening divide: the explosion of fees accompanying virtually every transaction that people make. As Devin Fergus shows in Land of the Fee, these perfectly legal fees are buried deep within the verbose agreements between vendors and consumers – agreements that few people fully read or comprehend. The end effect, Fergus argues, is a massive transfer of wealth from the many to the few: large banking corporations, airlines, corporate hotel chains, and other entities of vast wealth.
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QuantStrat TradeR Blog Reviews The Capital Spectator’s R Book
The estimable Ilya Kipnis at QuantStrat TradeR just published a very generous review of my recently published book on R — Quantitative Investment Portfolio Analytics In R: An Introduction To R For Modeling Portfolio Risk and Return
. The kind words are all the more gratifying when you consider that Kipnis, an independent consultant, is an authority on R coding as it relates to investment and trading analytics, as his many blog posts over the years demonstrate.
US Business Cycle Risk Report | 17 August 2018
Geopolitical risk is rising, but if there’s a price to pay in terms of sharply softer economic growth or worse for the US it’s not showing up in the numbers, at least not yet. With most of the July data published the macro profile remains upbeat and near-term projections suggest the positive trend will persist.
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Macro Briefing: 17 August 2018
US Treasury Sec: Turkey faces more sanctions without pastor’s release: Bloomberg
China’s weak currency will be in focus in trade talks with US: CNBC
US Attorney General issues order to accelerate deportations: Reuters
China “training for strikes” on US targets, Pentagon report warns: BBC
Walmart reports best sales growth in a decade: CNN
Is US economic growth peaking? MarketWatch
US housing starts edged up in July but fell vs. year-earlier level: MW
Jobless claims fell last week, near post-recession low: WSJ
Philly Fed Mfg Index slumps in August to lowest level in 21 months: MW