Hawkish makeover of US foreign policy rolls on with Bolton appointment: Atlantic
Trump OKs new China tariffs and stocks tumble on fears of trade war: Reuters
China threatens to respond to US tariffs with trade limits on imports: WaPo
Senate passes $1.3 trillion spending bill, averts gov’t shutdown: Bloomberg
US Leading Economic Index increased 0.6% in Feb–fourth straight gain: CNBC
US jobless claims ticked up but still near lowest levels since 1970: MarketWatch
US Composite PMI for Feb points to moderate 2.5% GDP growth for Q1: IHS Markit
FHFA Index: US house prices up 7.3% year over year in Jan: Builder
Manufacturing activity still strong in Fed’s 10th district: Wichita Business Journal
S&P 500 Index tumbled 2.5% on Thursday, closing at lowest level since February 9:

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, at his first press conference as the head of the central bank, announced a hike in interest rates. Tighter monetary policy was widely expected. What was surprising was Powell’s comments on the value of the Treasury yield curve as a tool for predicting the next US recession.
Continue reading →

Congress unveils $1.3 trillion budget that’ll keep gov’t open till Sep: CNN
Trump moving ahead on Chinese tariffs, raising trade-war risk: LA Times
A list of most-vulnerable US targets in a trade war with China: Bloomberg
Federal Reserve raises target interest rate to 1.5%-to-1.75% range: CNBC
Fed raises 2018’s GDP growth estimate to 2.7%  and 2.4% for 2019: Fed Reserve
Chinese paper: China should prepare for military action over Taiwan: Reuters
Over 40 African nations sign free-trade pact: NY Times
Sales of existing US homes rose 3% in February: USA Today
US current account widens more than expected in Q4: Reuters
S&P 500 ticks down to lowest close since Mar 2 after Fed rate hike:

Intech Investment Management recently published a primer on monitoring market stress by way of several risk metrics, including skewness of returns (SoR). In the grand scheme of quantifying risk, SoR is relatively obscure, but Intech makes a good case for paying more attention to this data.
Continue reading →

S. Korea’s president hints at 3-way talks with N. Korea and US: CNN
Trump admin may expel Russian diplomats after UK poisoning: CNN
Spending bill in Congress delayed, raising shutdown risk: The Hill
Trump expected to impose tariffs, restrictions on China on Thurs: MarketWatch
A US-China trade war would hurt but not trigger a recession: Bloomberg
Key issues to monitor for today’s Fed policy announcement: NY Times 
G20 meeting focused on trade disruptions as risk to global growth: Reuters
Eurozone consumer confidence reading for March holds steady: Reuters
2-year Treasury yield edged up to 2.34%, a 10-year high, ahead of Fed meeting:

US economic growth in the first quarter will match the modest pace reported in last year’s Q4, according to estimates compiled by The Capital Spectator. The median Q1 forecast points to a 2.5% increase in output, the gain reported for 2017’s final three months, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Continue reading →

Trump set to impose $60 billion annual tariff on China: The Hill
Possible gov’t shutdown looms as Congress weighs massive spending bill: CNN
Will upcoming US-S. Korea Military drills rattle N. Korea? Bloomberg
Decisions by China’s new central bank chief will impact world economy: NY Times
Foreigners own a record 40% of outstanding US corp bonds: Moody’s Analytics
Germany’s central bank expects strong economic growth to continue: MNI
Fed funds futures pricing in a 94% probability of a rate hike on Wed: CME

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the US posted a second straight gain last week, topping performances for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange traded products.
Continue reading →

Russia’s President Putin easily wins re-election in new 6-year term: Bloomberg
China’s new central bank governor seen as sign of policy continuity: BBC
N. Korean official will hold unofficial talks in Finland with S. Korea and US: WSJ
BoE’s Carney: cryptocurrencies may threaten financial system: Bloomberg
Huge spending bill on agenda for Congress this week: WSJ
GOP pushing for another round of tax cuts: The Hill
US industrial output jumped 1.1% in Feb, the highest in four months: Reuters
Consumer sentiment in US rose to 14-year high in March: U. of Michigan
US job openings surged to a record high in January: Reuters

● Predicting the Markets: A Professional Autobiography
By Edward Yardeni
Q&A with author via Barron’s
Barron’s: Are we heading for a trade war that will derail the markets?
Yardeni: The president is hard to predict, which makes the stock market’s reaction hard to predict. Back in the ’90s, the bond vigilantes disciplined Washington over inflation. Now we see the Dow vigilantes. The stock market is the one poll Trump follows. If it continues to decline, it will make him realize that [imposing tariffs] isn’t a good way to proceed.
Continue reading →