The government shutdown is delaying economic reports, but the latest numbers available continue to indicate a solid increase in the upcoming third-quarter GDP report, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The longer the shutdown lasts, however, the greater the uncertainty as the nowcast inputs age and fail to reflect the latest economic changes.
Daily Archives: October 10, 2025
Macro Briefing: 10 October 2025
A third of US state economies are contracting and another 13 are “treading water,” according to analysis from Moody’s Analytics. Two of the states with the biggest influence on US GDP — California and New York — appear to be at the tipping point. “Those two states are treading water. They’re big states, and if they go into the red then that’ll probably take the national economy with them into recession,” predicts Moody’s chief economist, Mark Zandi.
